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Grant Details

Grant Number: 5R01CA095994-08 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator: Wakefield, Jonathan
Organization: University Of Washington
Project Title: Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology: Methods and Applications
Fiscal Year: 2017
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Abstract

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): A major public health aim is to provide accurate estimates and predictions of disease burden at the area level; this endeavor is vital for prevention strategies. This proposal describes methods for modeling spatially and temporally indexed health data. The first two aims concern infectious disease data and the third aim small-area estimation (SAE) based on complex survey data. Despite the widespread collection of infectious disease data in time and space there are important gaps in statistical methodology for the analysis of such data. Specifically, there are both a limited number of modeling options and a lack of software implementations for those that are available. Hence, the emphasis in this project is on practically applicable methods that will be made available within freely-available software, based on modern Bayesian smoothing models. With respect to infectious disease data, a flexible spline- based model is proposed. The methods will be developed in the context of a number of developing world infectious disease applications including hand, foot and mouth disease and tuberculosis. For SAE the proposed approach combines design-based estimation techniques with spatial smoothing priors, to produce estimates with both low bias and low variance. These models will be applied to data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and to infant mortality and HIV data from the Tanzania demographic and health survey (DHS), in order to answer important public health questions.

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Publications

Associations between neighbourhood characteristics and depression: a twin study.
Authors: Cohen-Cline H. , Beresford S.A.A. , Barrington W.E. , Matsueda R.L. , Wakefield J. , Duncan G.E. .
Source: Journal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 2018 Mar; 72(3), p. 202-207.
EPub date: 2017-12-22 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 29273630
Related Citations

Efficient Data Augmentation for Fitting Stochastic Epidemic Models to Prevalence Data.
Authors: Fintzi J. , Cui X. , Wakefield J. , Minin V.N. .
Source: Journal Of Computational And Graphical Statistics : A Joint Publication Of American Statistical Association, Institute Of Mathematical Statistics, Interface Foundation Of North America, 2017; 26(4), p. 918-929.
EPub date: 2017-10-09 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 30515026
Related Citations

Temporal Trends In Geographic And Sociodemographic Disparities In Colorectal Cancer Among Medicare Patients, 1973-2010
Authors: Liang P.S. , Mayer J.D. , Wakefield J. , Ko C.W. .
Source: The Journal Of Rural Health : Official Journal Of The American Rural Health Association And The National Rural Health Care Association, 2016-08-31 00:00:00.0; , .
PMID: 27578387
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Time Series Modeling Of Pathogen-specific Disease Probabilities With Subsampled Data
Authors: Fisher L. , Wakefield J. , Bauer C. , Self S. .
Source: Biometrics, 2016-07-05 00:00:00.0; , .
PMID: 27378138
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Predictive Modeling Of Cholera Outbreaks In Bangladesh
Authors: Koepke A.A. , Longini I.M. , Halloran M.E. , Wakefield J. , Minin V.N. .
Source: The Annals Of Applied Statistics, 2016 Jun; 10(2), p. 575-595.
PMID: 27746850
Related Citations

Bayesian Penalized Spline Models For The Analysis Of Spatio-temporal Count Data
Authors: Bauer C. , Wakefield J. , Rue H. , Self S. , Feng Z. , Wang Y. .
Source: Statistics In Medicine, 2016-05-20 00:00:00.0; 35(11), p. 1848-65.
PMID: 26530705
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A Bayesian Method For Cluster Detection With Application To Brain And Breast Cancer In Puget Sound
Authors: Kim A.Y. , Wakefield J. .
Source: Epidemiology (cambridge, Mass.), 2016 May; 27(3), p. 347-55.
PMID: 26841056
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Using Small-area Estimation To Calculate The Prevalence Of Smoking By Subcounty Geographic Areas In King County, Washington, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2009-2013
Authors: Song L. , Mercer L. , Wakefield J. , Laurent A. , Solet D. .
Source: Preventing Chronic Disease, 2016; 13, p. E59.
PMID: 27149070
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Comment: Getting Into Space With A Weight Problem
Authors: Wakefield J. , Simpson D. , Godwin J. .
Source: Journal Of The American Statistical Association, 2016; 111(515), p. 1111-1118.
PMID: 28286352
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Restricted Covariance Priors With Applications In Spatial Statistics
Authors: Smith T.R. , Wakefield J. , Dobra A. .
Source: Bayesian Analysis, 2015-12-01 00:00:00.0; 10(4), p. 965-990.
PMID: 26753014
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Space-time Smoothing Of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation For Child Mortality
Authors: Mercer L.D. , Wakefield J. , Pantazis A. , Lutambi A.M. , Masanja H. , Clark S. .
Source: The Annals Of Applied Statistics, 2015 Dec; 9(4), p. 1889-1905.
PMID: 27468328
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Bayesian hierarchical models for smoothing in two-phase studies, with application to small area estimation.
Authors: Ross M. , Wakefield J. .
Source: Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (statistics In Society), 2015 Oct; 178(4), p. 1009-1023.
PMID: 26705382
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A Bayesian Model For Cluster Detection
Authors: Wakefield J. , Kim A. .
Source: Biostatistics (oxford, England), 2013 Sep; 14(4), p. 752-65.
PMID: 23476026
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Bayesian inference for two-phase studies with categorical covariates.
Authors: Ross M. , Wakefield J. .
Source: Biometrics, 2013 Jun; 69(2), p. 469-77.
PMID: 23607570
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Incorporating Spatial Variability Within Epidemiological Studies Of Environmental Exposures
Authors: Shaddick G. , Lee D. , Wakefield J. .
Source: International Journal Of Applied Earth Observation And Geoinformation : Itc Journal, 2013 Jun; 22, p. 65-74.
PMID: 25253999
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Hand, Foot, And Mouth Disease In China: Patterns Of Spread And Transmissibility
Authors: Wang,Y. , Feng,Z. , Yang,Y. , Self,S. , Gao,Y. , Longini,I.M. , Wakefield,J. , Zhang,J. , Wang,L. , Chen,X. , et al. .
Source: Epidemiology (cambridge, Mass.), 2011 Nov; 22(6), p. 781-92.
PMID: 21968769
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Bayes computation for ecological inference.
Authors: Wakefield J. , Haneuse S. , Dobra A. , Teeple E. .
Source: Statistics In Medicine, 2011-05-30 00:00:00.0; 30(12), p. 1381-96.
EPub date: 2011-05-30 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 21341304
Related Citations

Bayesian Inference For Generalized Linear Mixed Models
Authors: Fong,Y. , Rue,H. , Wakefield,J. .
Source: Biostatistics (oxford, England), 2010 Jul; 11(3), p. 397-412.
PMID: 19966070
Related Citations

Spatial Clustering Of Myelodysplastic Syndromes (mds) In The Seattle-puget Sound Region Of Washington State
Authors: Ross,M.E. , Wakefield,J. , Davis,S. , De Roos,A.J. .
Source: Cancer Causes & Control : Ccc, 2010 Jun; 21(6), p. 829-38.
PMID: 20101455
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Ecological Inference In The Social Sciences
Authors: Glynn A. , Wakefield J. .
Source: Statistical Methodology, 2010-05-01 00:00:00.0; 7(3), p. 307-322.
PMID: 20563299
Related Citations

Spatial Aggregation And The Ecological Fallacy

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