Grant Details
Grant Number: |
5U01CA157224-05 Interpret this number |
Primary Investigator: |
Etzioni, Ruth |
Organization: |
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center |
Project Title: |
Modeling Prostate Cancer Control: Prevention, Screening, Treatment, Followup Care |
Fiscal Year: |
2014 |
Abstract
DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The broad, long-term goal of this proposal is to position disease modeling as a viable tool for clinical decision making and policy development. The specific goal is to utilize the three complementary surveillance models developed by the CISNET prostate group to address some of the most persistent and pressing policy questions in prostate cancer.
In the proposed work we will extend the models to capture downstream outcomes following diagnosis, such as disease recurrence and secondary treatment. The extensions will be informed by some of the largest and richest population-based data sources available and will be validated extensively using these datasets and results from recently published US and European prostate cancer screening trials.
The extended models will be used to project the expected costs and benefits of different screening and treatment policies in order to identify those likely to be of most value in practice. The screening policies will consider different ages to start and stop screening, inter-screen intervals, PSA-based criteria for biopsy referral, and combination policies that incorporate novel screening biomarkers. The treatment policies will include immediate versus delayed primary treatment and immediate versus deferred secondary treatment following biochemical failure. We will extensively investigate the ramifications for both disease-specific and other-cause mortality of policies that include hormonal therapy, the most common systemic treatment for suspected or confirmed metastatic disease. Recognizing that different policies may be called for in different subgroups, we will also investigate the need for targeted policies within subpopulations defined by factors known to affect prostate cancer risk and outcomes, namely age, comorbidity, race, and obesity. The proposed work comprehensively covers the continuum of cancer control issues amenable to modeling that face prostate cancer investigators today. We plan to conduct the research using a coordinated comparative modeling approach in which independent models are standardized and made comparable by the use of common inputs and the implementation of common "base case" scenarios.
.
Publications
Incidence of Ductal Carcinoma in Situ in the United States, 2000-2014.
Authors: Ryser M.D.
, Hendrix L.H.
, Worni M.
, Liu Y.
, Hyslop T.
, Hwang E.S.
.
Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : A Publication Of The American Association For Cancer Research, Cosponsored By The American Society Of Preventive Oncology, 2019-06-11 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2019-06-11 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 31186262
Related Citations
Evaluating Parameter Uncertainty in a Simulation Model of Cancer Using Emulators.
Authors: de Carvalho T.M.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.M.
, Coffeng L.
, de Koning H.J.
.
Source: Medical Decision Making : An International Journal Of The Society For Medical Decision Making, 2019-06-10 00:00:00.0; , p. 272989X19837631.
EPub date: 2019-06-10 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 31179833
Related Citations
Cancer Outcomes in DCIS Patients Without Locoregional Treatment.
Authors: Ryser M.D.
, Weaver D.L.
, Zhao F.
, Worni M.
, Grimm L.J.
, Gulati R.
, Etzioni R.
, Hyslop T.
, Lee S.J.
, Hwang E.S.
.
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2019-02-13 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2019-02-13 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 30759222
Related Citations
Identification of the Fraction of Indolent Tumors and Associated Overdiagnosis in Breast Cancer Screening Trials.
Authors: Ryser M.D.
, Gulati R.
, Eisenberg M.C.
, Shen Y.
, Hwang E.S.
, Etzioni R.B.
.
Source: American Journal Of Epidemiology, 2018-10-16 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2018-10-16 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 30325415
Related Citations
Comparative effectiveness of prostate cancer screening between the ages of 55 and 69 years followed by active surveillance.
Authors: de Carvalho T.M.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.M.
, de Koning H.J.
.
Source: Cancer, 2018-02-01 00:00:00.0; 124(3), p. 507-513.
EPub date: 2017-12-12 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 29231973
Related Citations
The efficacy of prostate-specific antigen screening: Impact of key components in the ERSPC and PLCO trials.
Authors: de Koning H.J.
, Gulati R.
, Moss S.M.
, Hugosson J.
, Pinsky P.F.
, Berg C.D.
, Auvinen A.
, Andriole G.L.
, Roobol M.J.
, Crawford E.D.
, et al.
.
Source: Cancer, 2017-12-06 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2017-12-06 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 29211316
Related Citations
Reconciling the Effects of Screening on Prostate Cancer Mortality in the ERSPC and PLCO Trials.
Authors: Tsodikov A.
, Gulati R.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.M.
, Pinsky P.F.
, Moss S.M.
, Qiu S.
, de Carvalho T.M.
, Hugosson J.
, Berg C.D.
, Auvinen A.
, et al.
.
Source: Annals Of Internal Medicine, 2017-10-03 00:00:00.0; 167(7), p. 449-455.
EPub date: 2017-09-05 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 28869989
Related Citations
Is Prostate Cancer Different In Black Men? Answers From 3 Natural History Models
Authors: Tsodikov A.
, Gulati R.
, de Carvalho T.M.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.M.
, Hunter-Merrill R.A.
, Mariotto A.B.
, de Koning H.J.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Cancer, 2017-04-24 00:00:00.0; , .
PMID: 28436011
Related Citations
Estimating the risks and benefits of active surveillance protocols for prostate cancer: a microsimulation study.
Authors: de Carvalho T.M.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.
, de Koning H.J.
.
Source: Bju International, 2017 Apr; 119(4), p. 560-566.
EPub date: 2016-06-26 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 27222299
Related Citations
Estimating The Harms And Benefits Of Prostate Cancer Screening As Used In Common Practice Versus Recommended Good Practice: A Microsimulation Screening Analysis
Authors: Carlsson S.V.
, de Carvalho T.M.
, Roobol M.J.
, Hugosson J.
, Auvinen A.
, Kwiatkowski M.
, Villers A.
, Zappa M.
, Nelen V.
, Páez A.
, et al.
.
Source: Cancer, 2016-07-26 00:00:00.0; , .
PMID: 27459245
Related Citations
Economic Analysis of Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and Selective Treatment Strategies.
Authors: Roth J.A.
, Gulati R.
, Gore J.L.
, Cooperberg M.R.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Jama Oncology, 2016-07-01 00:00:00.0; 2(7), p. 890-8.
PMID: 27010943
Related Citations
Estimating the individual benefit of immediate treatment or active surveillance for prostate cancer after screen-detection in older (65+) men.
Authors: de Carvalho T.M.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.
, de Koning H.J.
.
Source: International Journal Of Cancer, 2016-05-15 00:00:00.0; 138(10), p. 2522-8.
EPub date: 2016-05-15 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 26695380
Related Citations
Recognizing the Limitations of Cancer Overdiagnosis Studies: A First Step Towards Overcoming Them.
Authors: Etzioni R.
, Gulati R.
.
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2016 Mar; 108(3), .
PMID: 26582245
Related Citations
Semiparametric estimation in the proportional hazard model accounting for a misclassified cause of failure.
Authors: Ha J.
, Tsodikov A.
.
Source: Biometrics, 2015 Dec; 71(4), p. 941-9.
PMID: 26102346
Related Citations
Screening For Prostate Cancer In The Us? Reduce The Harms And Keep The Benefit
Authors: de Carvalho T.M.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.
, de Koning H.J.
.
Source: International Journal Of Cancer, 2015-04-01 00:00:00.0; 136(7), p. 1600-7.
PMID: 25123412
Related Citations
Projecting Benefits And Harms Of Novel Cancer Screening Biomarkers: A Study Of Pca3 And Prostate Cancer
Authors: Birnbaum J.K.
, Feng Z.
, Gulati R.
, Fan J.
, Lotan Y.
, Wei J.T.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : A Publication Of The American Association For Cancer Research, Cosponsored By The American Society Of Preventive Oncology, 2015 Apr; 24(4), p. 677-82.
PMID: 25613117
Related Citations
Cost-effectiveness Of Prostate Cancer Screening: A Simulation Study Based On Erspc Data
Authors: Heijnsdijk E.A.
, de Carvalho T.M.
, Auvinen A.
, Zappa M.
, Nelen V.
, Kwiatkowski M.
, Villers A.
, Páez A.
, Moss S.M.
, Tammela T.L.
, et al.
.
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2015 Jan; 107(1), p. 366.
PMID: 25505238
Related Citations
A Reality Check For Overdiagnosis Estimates Associated With Breast Cancer Screening
Authors: Etzioni R.
, Xia J.
, Hubbard R.
, Weiss N.S.
, Gulati R.
.
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2014 Dec; 106(12), .
PMID: 25362701
Related Citations
Expected Population Impacts Of Discontinued Prostate-specific Antigen Screening
Authors: Gulati R.
, Tsodikov A.
, Etzioni R.
, Hunter-Merrill R.A.
, Gore J.L.
, Mariotto A.B.
, Cooperberg M.R.
.
Source: Cancer, 2014-11-15 00:00:00.0; 120(22), p. 3519-26.
PMID: 25065910
Related Citations
Overdetection Of Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy: Estimates Based On Patient And Tumor Characteristics
Authors: Xia J.
, Trock B.J.
, Gulati R.
, Mallinger L.
, Cooperberg M.R.
, Carroll P.R.
, Carter H.B.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Clinical Cancer Research : An Official Journal Of The American Association For Cancer Research, 2014-10-15 00:00:00.0; 20(20), p. 5302-10.
PMID: 25320374
Related Citations
Joint Modeling Approach For Semicompeting Risks Data With Missing Nonterminal Event Status
Authors: Hu C.
, Tsodikov A.
.
Source: Lifetime Data Analysis, 2014 Oct; 20(4), p. 563-83.
PMID: 24430204
Related Citations
Oversimplifying Overdiagnosis
Authors: Etzioni R.
, Gulati R.
.
Source: Journal Of General Internal Medicine, 2014 Sep; 29(9), p. 1218-20.
PMID: 24830739
Related Citations
Is prostate cancer screening cost-effective? A microsimulation model of prostate-specific antigen-based screening for British Columbia, Canada.
Authors: Pataky R.
, Gulati R.
, Etzioni R.
, Black P.
, Chi K.N.
, Coldman A.J.
, Pickles T.
, Tyldesley S.
, Peacock S.
.
Source: International Journal Of Cancer, 2014-08-15 00:00:00.0; 135(4), p. 939-47.
EPub date: 2014-08-15 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 24443367
Related Citations
Personalizing age of cancer screening cessation based on comorbid conditions: model estimates of harms and benefits.
Authors: Lansdorp-Vogelaar I.
, Gulati R.
, Mariotto A.B.
, Schechter C.B.
, de Carvalho T.M.
, Knudsen A.B.
, van Ravesteyn N.T.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.
, Pabiniak C.
, van Ballegooijen M.
, et al.
.
Source: Annals Of Internal Medicine, 2014-07-15 00:00:00.0; 161(2), p. 104-12.
PMID: 25023249
Related Citations
Semiparametric Regression Analysis For Time-to-event Marked Endpoints In Cancer Studies
Authors: Hu C.
, Tsodikov A.
.
Source: Biostatistics (oxford, England), 2014 Jul; 15(3), p. 513-25.
PMID: 24379192
Related Citations
Overdiagnosis And Overtreatment Of Prostate Cancer
Authors: Loeb S.
, Bjurlin M.A.
, Nicholson J.
, Tammela T.L.
, Penson D.F.
, Carter H.B.
, Carroll P.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: European Urology, 2014 Jun; 65(6), p. 1046-55.
PMID: 24439788
Related Citations
Prostate cancer in young men: an important clinical entity.
Authors: Salinas C.A.
, Tsodikov A.
, Ishak-Howard M.
, Cooney K.A.
.
Source: Nature Reviews. Urology, 2014 Jun; 11(6), p. 317-23.
PMID: 24818853
Related Citations
What Do The Screening Trials Really Tell Us And Where Do We Go From Here?
Authors: Etzioni R.D.
, Thompson I.M.
.
Source: The Urologic Clinics Of North America, 2014 May; 41(2), p. 223-8.
PMID: 24725484
Related Citations
Re: A Model Too Far
Authors: Etzioni R.
, Gulati R.
.
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2014 Apr; 106(4), p. dju058.
PMID: 24659791
Related Citations
Modeling grade progression in an active surveillance study.
Authors: Inoue L.Y.
, Trock B.J.
, Partin A.W.
, Carter H.B.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Statistics In Medicine, 2014-03-15 00:00:00.0; 33(6), p. 930-9.
EPub date: 2014-03-15 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 24123208
Related Citations
Individualized Estimates Of Overdiagnosis In Screen-detected Prostate Cancer
Authors: Gulati R.
, Inoue L.Y.
, Gore J.L.
, Katcher J.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2014 Feb; 106(2), p. djt367.
PMID: 24399850
Related Citations
Empirical Estimates Of Prostate Cancer Overdiagnosis By Age And Prostate-specific Antigen
Authors: Vickers A.J.
, Sjoberg D.D.
, Ulmert D.
, Vertosick E.
, Roobol M.J.
, Thompson I.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.
, De Koning H.
, Atoria-Swartz C.
, Scardino P.T.
, et al.
.
Source: Bmc Medicine, 2014; 12, p. 26.
PMID: 24512643
Related Citations
Influence of study features and methods on overdiagnosis estimates in breast and prostate cancer screening.
Authors: Etzioni R.
, Gulati R.
, Mallinger L.
, Mandelblatt J.
.
Source: Annals Of Internal Medicine, 2013-06-04 00:00:00.0; 158(11), p. 831-8.
PMID: 23732716
Related Citations
Treatment Of Local-regional Prostate Cancer Detected By Psa Screening: Benefits And Harms According To Prognostic Factors
Authors: Wever E.M.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.
, Draisma G.
, Bangma C.H.
, Roobol M.J.
, Schröder F.H.
, de Koning H.J.
.
Source: British Journal Of Cancer, 2013-05-28 00:00:00.0; 108(10), p. 1971-7.
PMID: 23674085
Related Citations
Effects Of Screening On Radical Prostatectomy Efficacy: The Prostate Cancer Intervention Versus Observation Trial
Authors: Xia J.
, Gulati R.
, Au M.
, Gore J.L.
, Lin D.W.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2013-04-17 00:00:00.0; 105(8), p. 546-50.
PMID: 23411592
Related Citations
Correcting The Results Of The Wrong Model: Treatment Effects Under Early Detection Of Cancer
Authors: Lee S.Y.
, Tsodikov A.
.
Source: Journal Of Statistical Theory And Practice, 2013-04-05 00:00:00.0; 7(2), p. 421-441.
PMID: 24032001
Related Citations
Limitations of basing screening policies on screening trials: The US Preventive Services Task Force and Prostate Cancer Screening.
Authors: Etzioni R.
, Gulati R.
, Cooperberg M.R.
, Penson D.M.
, Weiss N.S.
, Thompson I.M.
.
Source: Medical Care, 2013 Apr; 51(4), p. 295-300.
PMID: 23269114
Related Citations
Response: Reading Between The Lines Of Cancer Screening Trials: Using Modeling To Understand The Evidence
Authors: Etzioni R.
, Gulati R.
.
Source: Medical Care, 2013 Apr; 51(4), p. 304-6.
PMID: 23481032
Related Citations
Comparative effectiveness of alternative prostate-specific antigen--based prostate cancer screening strategies: model estimates of potential benefits and harms.
Authors: Gulati R.
, Gore J.L.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Annals Of Internal Medicine, 2013-02-05 00:00:00.0; 158(3), p. 145-53.
PMID: 23381039
Related Citations
Deriving Benefit Of Early Detection From Biomarker-based Prognostic Models
Authors: Inoue L.Y.
, Gulati R.
, Yu C.
, Kattan M.W.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Biostatistics (oxford, England), 2013 Jan; 14(1), p. 15-27.
PMID: 22730510
Related Citations
Evaluation Of New Technologies For Cancer Control Based On Population Trends In Disease Incidence And Mortality
Authors: Etzioni R.
, Durand-Zaleski I.
, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I.
.
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute. Monographs, 2013; 2013(46), p. 117-23.
PMID: 23962515
Related Citations
Increasing Use Of Radical Prostatectomy For Nonlethal Prostate Cancer In Sweden
Authors: Etzioni R.
, Mucci L.
, Chen S.
, Johansson J.E.
, Fall K.
, Adami H.O.
.
Source: Clinical Cancer Research : An Official Journal Of The American Association For Cancer Research, 2012-12-15 00:00:00.0; 18(24), p. 6742-7.
PMID: 22927485
Related Citations
The Prostate Cancer Conundrum Revisited: Treatment Changes And Prostate Cancer Mortality Declines
Authors: Etzioni R.
, Gulati R.
, Tsodikov A.
, Wever E.M.
, Penson D.F.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.
, Katcher J.
, Draisma G.
, Feuer E.J.
, de Koning H.J.
, et al.
.
Source: Cancer, 2012-12-01 00:00:00.0; 118(23), p. 5955-63.
PMID: 22605665
Related Citations
Prostate Cancer Mortality Following Active Surveillance Versus Immediate Radical Prostatectomy
Authors: Xia J.
, Trock B.J.
, Cooperberg M.R.
, Gulati R.
, Zeliadt S.B.
, Gore J.L.
, Lin D.W.
, Carroll P.R.
, Carter H.B.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Clinical Cancer Research : An Official Journal Of The American Association For Cancer Research, 2012-10-01 00:00:00.0; 18(19), p. 5471-8.
PMID: 23008476
Related Citations
The Impact Of Plco Control Arm Contamination On Perceived Psa Screening Efficacy
Authors: Gulati R.
, Tsodikov A.
, Wever E.M.
, Mariotto A.B.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.
, Katcher J.
, de Koning H.J.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Cancer Causes & Control : Ccc, 2012 Jun; 23(6), p. 827-35.
PMID: 22488488
Related Citations
Isotonic Estimation Of Survival Under A Misattribution Of Cause Of Death
Authors: Ha J.
, Tsodikov A.
.
Source: Lifetime Data Analysis, 2012 Jan; 18(1), p. 58-79.
PMID: 22094534
Related Citations
Prostate Cancers Detected During 5¿-reductase Inhibitor Use Are Smaller, De-differentiated, But Confined When Compared To Controls
Authors: Lee,F.
, Badalament,R.A.
, Hu,C.
, Bousho,I.
, Tsodikov,A.
.
Source: Journal Of Cancer, 2012; 3, p. 122-8.
PMID: 22408685
Related Citations
Long-term Projections Of The Harm-benefit Trade-off In Prostate Cancer Screening Are More Favorable Than Previous Short-term Estimates
Authors: Gulati R.
, Mariotto A.B.
, Chen S.
, Gore J.L.
, Etzioni R.
.
Source: Journal Of Clinical Epidemiology, 2011 Dec; 64(12), p. 1412-7.
PMID: 22032753
Related Citations
What if I don't treat my PSA-detected prostate cancer? Answers from three natural history models.
Authors: Gulati R.
, Wever E.M.
, Tsodikov A.
, Penson D.F.
, Inoue L.Y.
, Katcher J.
, Lee S.Y.
, Heijnsdijk E.A.
, Draisma G.
, de Koning H.J.
, et al.
.
Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : A Publication Of The American Association For Cancer Research, Cosponsored By The American Society Of Preventive Oncology, 2011 May; 20(5), p. 740-50.
PMID: 21546365
Related Citations