Grant Number:	5U01CA152956-05 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator:	Kong, Chung
Organization:	Massachusetts General Hospital
Project Title:	Comparative Modeling of Lung Cancer Control Policies
Fiscal Year:	2014

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Sophisticated modeling techniques can be powerful tools for decision makers seeking to understand the effects of cancer control interventions on population trends in cancer incidence and mortality. Yet the proven value of such models in health policy is limited by legitimate concerns over lack of transparency of complex models and variability in published results from different groups. NCI's Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) was created to promote collaboration between independent modeling groups investigating similar questions. By using the same sources of data for inputs and agreeing on uniform outcome measures, the variability in results reflects uncertainty in the effects of cancer control interventions rather than differences in design of the analysis. Further, by working together, the modeling groups can coherently explain the causes of variation. This proposal furthers the goals of CISNET by using comparative modeling approach to estimate the contributions of tobacco control and screening to reducing deaths from lung cancer. Over the next 5 years, major trials will report results on the efficacy of helical CT screening for lung cancer. The five CISNET models described in this proposal represent an existing infrastructure with which to synthesize these new data with existing data from observational and cohort studies and tumor registries. This group of models is poised to translate trial results into population-level effects and to project trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality if these policy interventions were adopted alone or in combination. We propose to disseminate our results in ways that will allow decision makers to prioritize one or more specific interventions to achieve the greatest reduction in lung cancer deaths.




The Minnesota SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use.
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Re: Think before you leap.
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Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.
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The Authors Respond
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Seven Years Of Progress In Tobacco Control: An Evaluation Of The Effect Of Nations Meeting The Highest Level Mpower Measures Between 2007 And 2014
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Public Health Benefits From Pictorial Health Warnings On Us Cigarette Packs: A Simsmoke Simulation
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Modeling the Effects of E-cigarettes on Smoking Behavior: Implications for Future Adult Smoking Prevalence.
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Combined Biomarker and Computed Tomography Screening Strategies for Lung Cancer: Projections of Health and Economic Tradeoffs in the US Population.
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Estimating The Potential Impact Of Tobacco Control Policies On Adverse Maternal And Child Health Outcomes In The United States Using The Simsmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model
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The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model.
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Gauging the Effect of U.S. Tobacco Control Policies From 1965 Through 2014 Using SimSmoke.
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Comparison of Smoking History Patterns Among African American and White Cohorts in the United States Born 1890 to 1990.
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Evaluating the impacts of screening and smoking cessation programmes on lung cancer in a high-burden region of the USA: a simulation modelling study.
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Overdiagnosis in lung cancer screening: why modelling is essential.
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Should Never-smokers At Increased Risk For Lung Cancer Be Screened?
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Personalizing Annual Lung Cancer Screening For Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Decision Analysis
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Catalog And Comparison Of Societal Preferences (utilities) For Lung Cancer Health States: Results From The Cancer Care Outcomes Research And Surveillance (cancors) Study
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Lung Cancer Incidence Trends By Gender, Race And Histology In The United States, 1973-2010
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Microsimulation Model Predicts Survival Benefit Of Radiofrequency Ablation And Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy Versus Radiotherapy For Treating Inoperable Stage I Non-small Cell Lung Cancer
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Longitudinal multistage model for lung cancer incidence, mortality, and CT detected indolent and aggressive cancers.
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Chapter 13: Cisnet Lung Models: Comparison Of Model Assumptions And Model Structures
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Chapter 15: Impact of tobacco control on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000--summary and limitations.
Authors: Boer R. , Moolgavkar S.H. , Levy D.T. .
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Chapter 5: Actual and counterfactual smoking prevalence rates in the U.S. population via microsimulation.
Authors: Jeon J. , Meza R. , Krapcho M. , Clarke L.D. , Byrne J. , Levy D.T. .
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Chapter 1:The impact of the reduction in tobacco smoking on U.S. lung cancer mortality, 1975-2000: an introduction to the problem.
Authors: Feuer E.J. , Levy D.T. , McCarthy W.J. .
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Chapter 6: Lung cancer in never smokers: epidemiology and risk prediction models.
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Chapter 8: The FHCRC lung cancer model.
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Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000.
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Using Radiation Risk Models In Cancer Screening Simulations: Important Assumptions And Effects On Outcome Projections
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Boosting Population Quits Through Evidence-based Cessation Treatment And Policy
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