Grant Number:	5U01CA152926-05 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator:	Hur, Chin
Organization:	Massachusetts General Hospital
Project Title:	Controlling Esophageal Cancer in the Us.: a Colloraborative Modeling Project
Fiscal Year:	2014

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The ultimate goal of the proposed research project is to advance our understanding of esophageal cancer and the impact of cancer control interventions in order to diminish the burden of this disease. We will accomplish this goal through a collaborative and comparative modeling project. The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has been rising at an alarming rate over the past three decades. Although the absolute number of EAC cases per year remains too low to screen the general population, targeted screening may be appropriate. Heartburn, the primary symptom of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), affects 60 million Americans and can lead to Barrett's esophagus (BE), a premalignant condition associated with the greatest risk (30-125x) of developing EAC. Because of the significant number of individuals affected with GERD and BE, the management of these patients has become a public health issue. However, an accepted screening or surveillance program for EAC has not been proposed. The goal of National Cancer Institute's (NCI) Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET), and a broader theme for our research proposal, is to bring together different simulation models, embracing differences in model structure to improve the overall understanding of a cancer's natural history and to improve model projections. Our application is in response to CISNET's recent expansion to include esophageal cancer as one of the targeted cancers within its network. As a new cancer group, we have the distinctive opportunity to perform groundbreaking analyses and to provide the crucial evidence synthesis that are urgently needed and novel. Our innovative collaboration will perform comparative modeling that focuses on, but is not limited to, determining the effectiveness of clinically relevant issues in esophageal cancer, multiscale modeling and incorporation of biomarkers, and the creation and dissemination of an interactive policy level decision tool. The investigators and the institutions assembled for this project have expertise in all facets of simulation disease modeling, clinical aspects of esophageal cancer, and a proven history of research and collaborations, providing assurance that the project's goals will be achieved in this rich environment. The research will address the overarching goals of increasing our understanding of the natural history of esophageal cancer and determining the impact and of potential cancer control interventions with the ultimate goal of ameliorating cancer morbidity.




The Optimal Age to Stop Endoscopic Surveillance of Patients With Barrett's Esophagus Based on Sex and Comorbidity: A Comparative Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
Authors: Omidvari A.H. , Hazelton W.D. , Lauren B.N. , Naber S.K. , Lee M. , Ali A. , Seguin C. , Kong C.Y. , Richmond E. , Rubenstein J.H. , et al. .
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PMID: 33974935
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Surveillance Cessation for Barrett's Esophagus: A Survey of Gastroenterologists.
Authors: Ozanne E.M. , Silver E.R. , Saini S.D. , Rubenstein J.H. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Bowers N. , Tan S.X. , Inadomi J.M. , Hur C. .
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PMID: 34049319
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Modeling historic incidence trends implies early field cancerization in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.
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Source: Plos Computational Biology, 2021 May; 17(5), p. e1008961.
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PMID: 33939693
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Optimal Timing for Cancer Screening and Adaptive Surveillance Using Mathematical Modeling.
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PMID: 33293425
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Impact of assumptions on future costs, disutility and mortality in cost-effectiveness analysis; a model exploration.
Authors: Omidvari A.H. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , de Koning H.J. , Meester R.G.S. .
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PMID: 34252090
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Computational modelling suggests that Barrett's oesophagus may be the precursor of all oesophageal adenocarcinomas.
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PMID: 33234525
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Optimizing Management of Patients With Barrett's Esophagus and Low-Grade or No Dysplasia Based on Comparative Modeling.
Authors: Omidvari A.H. , Ali A. , Hazelton W.D. , Kroep S. , Lee M. , Naber S.K. , Lauren B.N. , Ostvar S. , Richmond E. , Kong C.Y. , et al. .
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The Impact of a Prior Diagnosis of Barrett's Esophagus on Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Survival.
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Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Patients with Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease for Barrett's Esophagus With a Minimally Invasive Cell Sampling Device.
Authors: Heberle C.R. , Omidvari A.H. , Ali A. , Kroep S. , Kong C.Y. , Inadomi J.M. , Rubenstein J.H. , Tramontano A.C. , Dowling E.C. , Hazelton W.D. , et al. .
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PMID: 28238953
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Impact Of Radiofrequency Ablation Treatment Of Barrett's Esophagus On Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: A Comparative Modeling Analysis
Authors: Kroep S. , Heberle C.R. , Curtius K. , Kong C.Y. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Ali A. , Wolf W.A. , Shaheen N.J. , Spechler S.J. , Rubenstein J.H. , et al. .
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Multi-scale Modeling in Clinical Oncology: Opportunities and Barriers to Success.
Authors: Yankeelov T.E. , An G. , Saut O. , Luebeck E.G. , Popel A.S. , Ribba B. , Vicini P. , Zhou X. , Weis J.A. , Ye K. , et al. .
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An Accurate Cancer Incidence in Barrett's Esophagus: A Best Estimate Using Published Data and Modeling.
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The Impact of Uncertainty in Barrett's Esophagus Progression Rates on Hypothetical Screening and Treatment Decisions.
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The Role of Gastroesophageal Reflux and Other Factors during Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.
Authors: Hazelton W.D. , Curtius K. , Inadomi J.M. , Vaughan T.L. , Meza R. , Rubenstein J.H. , Hur C. , Luebeck E.G. .
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PMID: 25931440
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High-resolution microendoscopy for esophageal cancer screening in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis.
Authors: Hur C. , Choi S.E. , Kong C.Y. , Wang G.Q. , Xu H. , Polydorides A.D. , Xue L.Y. , Perzan K.E. , Tramontano A.C. , Richards-Kortum R.R. , et al. .
Source: World Journal Of Gastroenterology, 2015-05-14 00:00:00.0; 21(18), p. 5513-23.
PMID: 25987774
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A Multiscale Model Evaluates Screening for Neoplasia in Barrett's Esophagus.
Authors: Curtius K. , Hazelton W.D. , Jeon J. , Luebeck E.G. .
Source: Plos Computational Biology, 2015 May; 11(5), p. e1004272.
PMID: 26001209
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Cost considerations in implementing a screening and surveillance strategy for Barrett's oesophagus.
Authors: Inadomi J.M. .
Source: Best Practice & Research. Clinical Gastroenterology, 2015 Feb; 29(1), p. 51-63.
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Incidence and predictors of adenocarcinoma following endoscopic ablation of Barrett's esophagus.
Authors: Yasuda K. , Choi S.E. , Nishioka N.S. , Rattner D.W. , Puricelli W.P. , Tramontano A.C. , Kitano S. , Hur C. .
Source: Digestive Diseases And Sciences, 2014 Jul; 59(7), p. 1560-6.
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Exploring the recent trend in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality using comparative simulation modeling.
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Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : A Publication Of The American Association For Cancer Research, Cosponsored By The American Society Of Preventive Oncology, 2014 Jun; 23(6), p. 997-1006.
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Trends in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality.
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The cost effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's esophagus.
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Source: Gastroenterology, 2012 Sep; 143(3), p. 567-75.
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Aspirin protects against Barrett's esophagus in a multivariate logistic regression analysis.
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Source: Clinical Gastroenterology And Hepatology : The Official Clinical Practice Journal Of The American Gastroenterological Association, 2012 Jul; 10(7), p. 722-7.
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Screening and surveillance for Barrett's esophagus: current issues and future directions.
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Authors: Kong C.Y. , Nattinger K.J. , Hayeck T.J. , Omer Z.B. , Wang Y.C. , Spechler S.J. , McMahon P.M. , Gazelle G.S. , Hur C. .
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