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Grant Details

Grant Number: 5R03CA173770-02 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator: Long, Qi
Organization: Emory University
Project Title: Evaluating Prediction Models for Cancer Endpoints Subject to Dependent Censoring
Fiscal Year: 2014


Abstract

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Project Summary/Abstract The proposed research seeks to develop new statistical methods for assessing performance of prediction models for cancer risk and prognosis when the endpoint of interest such as patient survival or time to cancer recurrence is subject to potentially dependent censoring, which is often present in observational and epidemiological studies. The significance of prediction models for cancer risk and prognosis has been well established: they can be used to identify individuals at high risk, plan interventional trials and subsequently design and improve personalized prevention and treatment strategies, and estimate the population burden, the cost of cancer, and the impact of potential interventions and treatments. In order to identify optimal (or better) prediction models, it is crucial to develop robust predictive accuracy metrics for assessing and comparing prediction models. Predictive accuracy metrics that do not adjust for censoring mechanism likely lead to biased assessment of prediction models in the presence of dependent censoring. While a considerable amount of work has been reported on development of predictive accuracy metrics, there has been only limited work on predictive accuracy metrics for censored data, most of which have been developed for the case of independent censoring and limited to Cox proportional hazard models. In addition, owing to major advances in technology, it has become increasingly common that high-dimensional biomarkers such as genomic and proteomic data are collected in cancer research studies and modern statistical methods have been developed to utilize these high-dimensional data when constructing prediction models, which presents another challenge for assessing predictive accuracy in the presence of dependent censoring. These considerations lead to our specific aims as follows: 1) develop new metrics to account for censoring mechanism when assessing predictive accuracy of regression models for cancer endpoints that are subject to dependent censoring; 2) develop new metrics to account for censoring mechanism when assessing predictive accuracy of accelerated failure time models for cancer endpoints that are subject to dependent censoring; 3) develop sensitivity analysis for the case where censoring may depend on unobserved survival times; and 4) perform systematic evaluation of predictive accuracy metrics for censored data through extensive simulations and real data analysis. The proposed statistical methods, once developed, will allow for assessment of predictive accuracy of prediction models under a wide range of settings including different censoring mechanisms and for high-dimensional data. The proposed numerical studies will shed important insight on applicability, advantages, and disadvantages of different metrics, as well as impact of censoring mechanism on these metrics, and subsequently provide better guidance to cancer researchers on how to use and interpret these metrics in research studies and in practice.



Publications

Instruments for determining clinically relevant fatigue in breast cancer patients during radiotherapy.
Authors: Andic F. , Miller A.H. , Brown G. , Chu L. , Lin J. , Liu T. , Sertdemir Y. , Torres M.A. .
Source: Breast cancer (Tokyo, Japan), 2020 Mar; 27(2), p. 197-205.
EPub date: 2019-09-06.
PMID: 31493295
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Impact of Regional Nodal Irradiation and Hypofractionated Whole-Breast Radiation on Long-Term Breast Retraction and Poor Cosmetic Outcome in Breast Cancer Survivors.
Authors: Wang D. , Yang X. , He J. , Lin J. , Henry S. , Brown G. , Chu L. , Godette K.D. , Kahn S.T. , Liu T. , et al. .
Source: Clinical breast cancer, 2020 02; 20(1), p. e75-e81.
EPub date: 2019-09-18.
PMID: 31780378
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Full axillary lymph node dissection and increased breast epidermal thickness 1 year after radiation therapy for breast cancer.
Authors: Lin J.Y. , Yang X. , Serra M. , Miller A.H. , Godette K.D. , Kahn S.T. , Henry S. , Brown G. , Liu T. , Torres M.A. .
Source: Journal of surgical oncology, 2019 Dec; 120(8), p. 1397-1403.
EPub date: 2019-11-08.
PMID: 31705561
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Scalable Bayesian variable selection for structured high-dimensional data.
Authors: Chang C. , Kundu S. , Long Q. .
Source: Biometrics, 2018 12; 74(4), p. 1372-1382.
EPub date: 2018-05-08.
PMID: 29738602
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Bayesian Multiresolution Variable Selection for Ultra-High Dimensional Neuroimaging Data.
Authors: Zhao Y. , Kang J. , Long Q. .
Source: IEEE/ACM transactions on computational biology and bioinformatics, 2018 Mar-Apr; 15(2), p. 537-550.
PMID: 29610102
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Integrative analysis of transcriptomic and metabolomic data via sparse canonical correlation analysis with incorporation of biological information.
Authors: Safo S.E. , Li S. , Long Q. .
Source: Biometrics, 2018 03; 74(1), p. 300-312.
EPub date: 2017-05-08.
PMID: 28482123
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Impact of Selection Bias on Estimation of Subsequent Event Risk.
Authors: Hu Y.J. , Schmidt A.F. , Dudbridge F. , Holmes M.V. , Brophy J.M. , Tragante V. , Li Z. , Liao P. , Quyyumi A.A. , McCubrey R.O. , et al. .
Source: Circulation. Cardiovascular genetics, 2017 10; 10(5), .
PMID: 28986451
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Incorporating biological information in sparse principal component analysis with application to genomic data.
Authors: Li Z. , Safo S.E. , Long Q. .
Source: BMC bioinformatics, 2017-07-11; 18(1), p. 332.
EPub date: 2017-07-11.
PMID: 28697740
Related Citations

Evaluation of a 24-gene signature for prognosis of metastatic events and prostate cancer-specific mortality.
Authors: Pellegrini K.L. , Sanda M.G. , Patil D. , Long Q. , Santiago-Jiménez M. , Takhar M. , Erho N. , Yousefi K. , Davicioni E. , Klein E.A. , et al. .
Source: BJU international, 2017 06; 119(6), p. 961-967.
EPub date: 2017-02-11.
PMID: 28107602
Related Citations

Bayesian modeling and prediction of accrual in multi-regional clinical trials.
Authors: Deng Y. , Zhang X. , Long Q. .
Source: Statistical methods in medical research, 2017 04; 26(2), p. 752-765.
EPub date: 2014-11-03.
PMID: 25367100
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Addressing issues associated with evaluating prediction models for survival endpoints based on the concordance statistic.
Authors: Wang M. , Long Q. .
Source: Biometrics, 2016 09; 72(3), p. 897-906.
EPub date: 2016-01-12.
PMID: 26756274
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The Impact of Axillary Lymph Node Surgery on Breast Skin Thickening During and After Radiation Therapy for Breast Cancer.
Authors: Torres M.A. , Yang X. , Noreen S. , Chen H. , Han T. , Henry S. , Mister D. , Andic F. , Long Q. , Liu T. .
Source: International journal of radiation oncology, biology, physics, 2016-06-01; 95(2), p. 590-6.
EPub date: 2016-01-23.
PMID: 27055397
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Hierarchical Feature Selection Incorporating Known and Novel Biological Information: Identifying Genomic Features Related to Prostate Cancer Recurrence.
Authors: Zhao Y. , Chung M. , Johnson B.A. , Moreno C.S. , Long Q. .
Source: Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2016; 111(516), p. 1427-1439.
EPub date: 2017-01-04.
PMID: 28435175
Related Citations

Variable selection in the presence of missing data: resampling and imputation.
Authors: Long Q. , Johnson B.A. .
Source: Biostatistics (Oxford, England), 2015 Jul; 16(3), p. 596-610.
EPub date: 2015-02-18.
PMID: 25694614
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Temporal changes in serum biomarkers and risk for progression of gastric precancerous lesions: a longitudinal study.
Authors: Tu H. , Sun L. , Dong X. , Gong Y. , Xu Q. , Jing J. , Long Q. , Flanders W.D. , Bostick R.M. , Yuan Y. .
Source: International journal of cancer, 2015-01-15; 136(2), p. 425-34.
EPub date: 2014-06-19.
PMID: 24895149
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Global transcriptome analysis of formalin-fixed prostate cancer specimens identifies biomarkers of disease recurrence.
Authors: Long Q. , Xu J. , Osunkoya A.O. , Sannigrahi S. , Johnson B.A. , Zhou W. , Gillespie T. , Park J.Y. , Nam R.K. , Sugar L. , et al. .
Source: Cancer research, 2014-06-15; 74(12), p. 3228-37.
EPub date: 2014-04-08.
PMID: 24713434
Related Citations

A nonparametric multiple imputation approach for data with missing covariate values with application to colorectal adenoma data.
Authors: Hsu C.H. , Long Q. , Li Y. , Jacobs E. .
Source: Journal of biopharmaceutical statistics, 2014; 24(3), p. 634-48.
PMID: 24697618
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