Grant Number:	5U01CA097415-08 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator:	Moolgavkar, Suresh
Organization:	Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Project Title:	Lung Cancer in the U.s.: Trends and Prevention
Fiscal Year:	2009

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Under the auspices of our currently funded CISNET grant we have been developing models based on ideas of multistage carcinogenesis for prediction of lung cancer incidence and mortality rates. In this renewal CISNET application we propose to use these models to predict lung cancer risk in the US under diverse smoking scenarios. We will also develop user-friendly software to implement our models. This software will be made freely available to interested scientists. Our models can explicitly accommodate detailed smoking histories on individuals including age at initiation, number of cigarettes smoked per day, changes in levels of smoking, and age at quitting if an ex-smoker. Moreover the models can be used to predict risks both in individuals and populations. Thus the models can be used to predict both individual and population risks under various intervention scenarios for smoking cessation. Since the models are based on the biological paradigm of initiation, promotion and progression in carcinogenesis, they can be used to generate biological hypotheses regarding the mechanism of tobacco induced lung cancer and to explore the extent to which projected risks depend on specific mechanistic aspects of smoking-induced lung cancer. We propose to explore collaboration with other investigators supported by CISNET, particularly those interested in using our model as the 'natural history' component of screening models.




Longitudinal multistage model for lung cancer incidence, mortality, and CT detected indolent and aggressive cancers.
Authors: Hazelton W.D. , Goodman G. , Rom W.N. , Tockman M. , Thornquist M. , Moolgavkar S. , Weissfeld J.L. , Feng Z. .
Source: Mathematical Biosciences, 2012 Nov; 240(1), p. 20-34.
PMID: 22705252
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Chapter 15: Impact of tobacco control on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000--summary and limitations.
Authors: Boer R. , Moolgavkar S.H. , Levy D.T. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S190-201.
PMID: 22882889
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Chapter 5: Actual and counterfactual smoking prevalence rates in the U.S. population via microsimulation.
Authors: Jeon J. , Meza R. , Krapcho M. , Clarke L.D. , Byrne J. , Levy D.T. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S51-68.
PMID: 22882892
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Chapter 1:The impact of the reduction in tobacco smoking on U.S. lung cancer mortality, 1975-2000: an introduction to the problem.
Authors: Feuer E.J. , Levy D.T. , McCarthy W.J. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S6-S13.
PMID: 22882893
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Chapter 6: Lung cancer in never smokers: epidemiology and risk prediction models.
Authors: McCarthy W.J. , Meza R. , Jeon J. , Moolgavkar S.H. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S69-84.
PMID: 22882894
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Chapter 8: The FHCRC lung cancer model.
Authors: Hazelton W.D. , Jeon J. , Meza R. , Moolgavkar S.H. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S99-S116.
PMID: 22882896
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Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000.
Authors: Moolgavkar S.H. , Holford T.R. , Levy D.T. , Kong C.Y. , Foy M. , Clarke L. , Jeon J. , Hazelton W.D. , Meza R. , Schultz F. , et al. .
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2012-04-04 00:00:00.0; 104(7), p. 541-8.
EPub date: 2012-04-04 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 22423009
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Analysis of lung cancer incidence in the Nurses' Health and the Health Professionals' Follow-Up Studies using a multistage carcinogenesis model.
Authors: Meza R. , Hazelton W.D. , Colditz G.A. , Moolgavkar S.H. .
Source: Cancer Causes & Control : Ccc, 2008 Apr; 19(3), p. 317-28.
PMID: 18058248
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Lung cancer rate predictions using generalized additive models.
Authors: Clements M.S. , Armstrong B.K. , Moolgavkar S.H. .
Source: Biostatistics (oxford, England), 2005 Oct; 6(4), p. 576-89.
PMID: 15860544
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Multistage carcinogenesis and lung cancer mortality in three cohorts.
Authors: Hazelton W.D. , Clements M.S. , Moolgavkar S.H. .
Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : A Publication Of The American Association For Cancer Research, Cosponsored By The American Society Of Preventive Oncology, 2005 May; 14(5), p. 1171-81.
PMID: 15894668
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