Grant Number:	5U01CA097450-08 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator:	Levy, David
Organization:	Pacific Institute For Res And Evaluation
Project Title:	A Simulation of Tobacco Policy, Smoking and Lung Cancer
Fiscal Year:	2009

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In this competing renewal, a macro-simulation model, known as SimSmoke, will be expanded and improved. SimSmoke is designed to predict smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths over time at the population level and to examine the effects of different public policies on these outcomes. The changes proposed are outlined in the following aims: (1) Extend the current SimSmoke work to better understand the relationship between smoking and lung cancer death rates. Analysis of this relationship will be improved by closer examination of exsmokers and age, gender, and racial/ethnic variations. The role of duration, quantity, and secondhand smoke also will be incorporated. (2) Expand the CISNET-I base case model beginning in 1975 to include background risks, tobacco control policies, secondhand smoke, and smoking intensity. Also, create a 25-year period over which to validate the tobacco control policy model by incorporating tobacco control policies beginning with the 1975 baseline. (3) Extend the model to consider the past and potential future role of telephone quitlines and the coordination of other smoking cessation strategies so that they are in line with current policy interests. (4) Model at least three states with the goal of making the model readily accessible for application to all states. Validate each of the state models in terms of its ability to predict smoking prevalence and lung-cancer-attributable deaths. (5) Complete a model of modified low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco for use as an alternative (to cigarettes) nicotine delivery product. Develop and extend this prototype harm-reduction model to assess other alternative nicotine delivery products and to address regulatory issues that are relevant to policymakers. (6) Update the C++ model and the various Excel models to incorporate the most recent data available and to make them more readily available to the public. Continue to develop documentation for and improve the user-friendliness of both the Excel and C++ versions of the model and make them available on the web. (7) Critically examine the methods that are traditionally used to project lung cancer deaths and determine how the estimates depend on the sensitivity to key parameters.




The Impact of Implementing Tobacco Control Policies: The 2017 Tobacco Control Policy Scorecard.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Tam J. , Kuo C. , Fong G.T. , Chaloupka F. .
Source: Journal Of Public Health Management And Practice : Jphmp, 2018-01-17 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2018-01-17 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 29346189
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Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Borland R. , Lindblom E.N. , Goniewicz M.L. , Meza R. , Holford T.R. , Yuan Z. , Luo Y. , O'Connor R.J. , Niaura R. , et al. .
Source: Tobacco Control, 2018 Jan; 27(1), p. 18-25.
EPub date: 2017-10-02 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 28970328
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The Relationship of E-Cigarette Use to Cigarette Quit Attempts and Cessation: Insights From a Large, Nationally Representative U.S. Survey.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Yuan Z. , Luo Y. , Abrams D.B. .
Source: Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal Of The Society For Research On Nicotine And Tobacco, 2017-08-31 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2017-08-31 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 29059341
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Seven Years Of Progress In Tobacco Control: An Evaluation Of The Effect Of Nations Meeting The Highest Level Mpower Measures Between 2007 And 2014
Authors: Levy D.T. , Yuan Z. , Luo Y. , Mays D. .
Source: Tobacco Control, 2016-12-12 00:00:00.0; , .
PMID: 27956650
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Public Health Benefits From Pictorial Health Warnings On Us Cigarette Packs: A Simsmoke Simulation
Authors: Levy D.T. , Mays D. , Yuan Z. , Hammond D. , Thrasher J.F. .
Source: Tobacco Control, 2016-11-02 00:00:00.0; , .
PMID: 27807299
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The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Huang A.T. , Havumaki J.S. , Meza R. .
Source: Cancer Causes & Control : Ccc, 2016 May; 27(5), p. 615-25.
PMID: 26983616
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Gauging the Effect of U.S. Tobacco Control Policies From 1965 Through 2014 Using SimSmoke.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Meza R. , Zhang Y. , Holford T.R. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2016 Apr; 50(4), p. 535-42.
PMID: 26673484
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Disparities In Maternal Child And Health Outcomes Attributable To Prenatal Tobacco Use
Authors: Mohlman M.K. , Levy D.T. .
Source: Maternal And Child Health Journal, 2016 Mar; 20(3), p. 701-9.
PMID: 26645613
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Complying With The Framework Convention For Tobacco Control: An Application Of The Abridged Simsmoke Model To Israel
Authors: Levy D. , Abrams D.B. , Levy J. , Rosen L. .
Source: Israel Journal Of Health Policy Research, 2016; 5, p. 41.
PMID: 27651891
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Application Of The Abridged Simsmoke Model To Four Eastern Mediterranean Countries
Authors: Levy D.T. , Fouad H. , Levy J. , Dragomir A.D. , El Awa F. .
Source: Tobacco Control, 2015-06-16 00:00:00.0; , .
PMID: 26080365
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Public Health Effects Of Restricting Retail Tobacco Product Displays And Ads
Authors: Levy D.T. , Lindblom E.N. , Fleischer N.L. , Thrasher J. , Mohlman M.K. , Zhang Y. , Monshouwer K. , Nagelhout G.E. .
Source: Tobacco Regulatory Science, 2015 Apr; 1(1), p. 61-75.
PMID: 26191538
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Russia Simsmoke: The Long-term Effects Of Tobacco Control Policies On Smoking Prevalence And Smoking-attributable Deaths In Russia
Authors: Maslennikova G.Y. , Oganov R.G. , Boytsov S.A. , Ross H. , Huang A.T. , Near A. , Kotov A. , Berezhnova I. , Levy D.T. .
Source: Tobacco Control, 2014 Nov; 23(6), p. 484-90.
PMID: 23853252
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Sweden SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking and snus prevalence and attributable deaths.
Authors: Near A.M. , Blackman K. , Currie L.M. , Levy D.T. .
Source: European Journal Of Public Health, 2014 Jun; 24(3), p. 451-8.
PMID: 24287030
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Smoking-related deaths averted due to three years of policy progress.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Ellis J.A. , Mays D. , Huang A.T. .
Source: Bulletin Of The World Health Organization, 2013-07-01 00:00:00.0; 91(7), p. 509-18.
PMID: 23825878
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The Role Of Public Policies In Reducing Smoking: The Minnesota Simsmoke Tobacco Policy Model
Authors: Levy D.T. , Boyle R.G. , Abrams D.B. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2012 Nov; 43(5 Suppl 3), p. S179-86.
PMID: 23079215
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Building Better Models: If We Build Them, Will Policy Makers Use Them? Toward Integrating Modeling Into Health Care Decisions
Authors: Mandelblatt J. , Schechter C. , Levy D. , Zauber A. , Chang Y. , Etzioni R. .
Source: Medical Decision Making : An International Journal Of The Society For Medical Decision Making, 2012 Sep-Oct; 32(5), p. 656-9.
PMID: 22990079
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Chapter 10: A macro-model of smoking and lung cancer: examining aggregate trends in lung cancer rates using the CPS-I and CPS-II and two-stage clonal expansion models.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Blackman K. , Zaloshnja E. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S125-41.
PMID: 22882883
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Chapter 14: Comparing the adequacy of carcinogenesis models in estimating U.S. population rates for lung cancer mortality.
Authors: Holford T.R. , Levy D.T. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S179-89.
PMID: 22882888
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Chapter 15: Impact of tobacco control on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000--summary and limitations.
Authors: Boer R. , Moolgavkar S.H. , Levy D.T. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S190-201.
PMID: 22882889
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Chapter 5: Actual and counterfactual smoking prevalence rates in the U.S. population via microsimulation.
Authors: Jeon J. , Meza R. , Krapcho M. , Clarke L.D. , Byrne J. , Levy D.T. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S51-68.
PMID: 22882892
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Chapter 1:The impact of the reduction in tobacco smoking on U.S. lung cancer mortality, 1975-2000: an introduction to the problem.
Authors: Feuer E.J. , Levy D.T. , McCarthy W.J. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S6-S13.
PMID: 22882893
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Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000.
Authors: Moolgavkar S.H. , Holford T.R. , Levy D.T. , Kong C.Y. , Foy M. , Clarke L. , Jeon J. , Hazelton W.D. , Meza R. , Schultz F. , et al. .
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2012-04-04 00:00:00.0; 104(7), p. 541-8.
EPub date: 2012-04-04 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 22423009
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The Brazil SimSmoke policy simulation model: the effect of strong tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in a middle income nation.
Authors: Levy D. , de Almeida L.M. , Szklo A. .
Source: Plos Medicine, 2012; 9(11), p. e1001336.
PMID: 23139643
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Simulation Models Of Obesity: A Review Of The Literature And Implications For Research And Policy
Authors: Levy,D.T. , Mabry,P.L. , Wang,Y.C. , Gortmaker,S. , Huang,T.T. , Marsh,T. , Moodie,M. , Swinburn,B. .
Source: Obesity Reviews : An Official Journal Of The International Association For The Study Of Obesity, 2011 May; 12(5), p. 378-94.
PMID: 20973910
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Exploring scenarios to dramatically reduce smoking prevalence: a simulation model of the three-part cessation process.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Mabry P.L. , Graham A.L. , Orleans C.T. , Abrams D.B. .
Source: American Journal Of Public Health, 2010 Jul; 100(7), p. 1253-9.
PMID: 20466969
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Boosting Population Quits Through Evidence-based Cessation Treatment And Policy
Authors: Abrams,D.B. , Graham,A.L. , Levy,D.T. , Mabry,P.L. , Orleans,C.T. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2010 Mar; 38(3 Suppl), p. S351-63.
PMID: 20176308
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Modeling the impact of smoking-cessation treatment policies on quit rates.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Graham A.L. , Mabry P.L. , Abrams D.B. , Orleans C.T. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2010 Mar; 38(3 Suppl), p. S364-72.
PMID: 20176309
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Reaching Healthy People 2010 by 2013: A SimSmoke simulation.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Mabry P.L. , Graham A.L. , Orleans C.T. , Abrams D.B. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2010 Mar; 38(3 Suppl), p. S373-81.
PMID: 20176310
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The Kentucky Simsmoke Tobacco Policy Simulation Model: Reaching Healthy People 2010 Goals Through Policy Change
Authors: Levy,D.T. , Tworek,C. , Hahn,E.J. , Davis,R.E. .
Source: Southern Medical Journal, 2008 May; 101(5), p. 503-7.
PMID: 18414175
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Examining Trends In Quantity Smoked
Authors: Levy,D.T. , Mumford,E.A. , Gerlowski,D.A. .
Source: Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal Of The Society For Research On Nicotine And Tobacco, 2007 Dec; 9(12), p. 1287-96.
PMID: 18058347
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The Role Of Public Policies In Reducing Smoking Prevalence In California: Results From The California Tobacco Policy Simulation Model
Authors: Levy,D.T. , Hyland,A. , Higbee,C. , Remer,L. , Compton,C. .
Source: Health Policy (amsterdam, Netherlands), 2007 Jul; 82(2), p. 167-85.
PMID: 17055104
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The Role Of Public Policies In Reducing Smoking Prevalence And Deaths Caused By Smoking In Arizona: Results From The Arizona Tobacco Policy Simulation Model
Authors: Levy,D.T. , Ross,H. , Powell,L. , Bauer,J.E. , Lee,H.R. .
Source: Journal Of Public Health Management And Practice : Jphmp, 2007 Jan-Feb; 13(1), p. 59-67.
PMID: 17149101
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Tobacco Control Policies And Smoking In A Population Of Low Education Women, 1992-2002
Authors: Levy,D.T. , Mumford,E.A. , Compton,C. .
Source: Journal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 2006 Sep; 60 Suppl 2, p. 20-6.
PMID: 17708007
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Simulation Modeling And Tobacco Control: Creating More Robust Public Health Policies
Authors: Levy,D.T. , Bauer,J.E. , Lee,H.R. .
Source: American Journal Of Public Health, 2006 Mar; 96(3), p. 494-8.
PMID: 16449585
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Recent trends in smoking and the role of public policies: results from the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Nikolayev L. , Mumford E. .
Source: Addiction (abingdon, England), 2005 Oct; 100(10), p. 1526-36.
PMID: 16185214
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The Healthy People 2010 Smoking Prevalence And Tobacco Control Objectives: Results From The Simsmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model (united States)
Authors: Levy,D.T. , Nikolayev,L. , Mumford,E. , Compton,C. .
Source: Cancer Causes & Control : Ccc, 2005 May; 16(4), p. 359-71.
PMID: 15953978
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The Relative Risks Of A Low-nitrosamine Smokeless Tobacco Product Compared With Smoking Cigarettes: Estimates Of A Panel Of Experts
Authors: Levy,D.T. , Mumford,E.A. , Cummings,K.M. , Gilpin,E.A. , Giovino,G. , Hyland,A. , Sweanor,D. , Warner,K.E. .
Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : A Publication Of The American Association For Cancer Research, Cosponsored By The American Society Of Preventive Oncology, 2004 Dec; 13(12), p. 2035-42.
PMID: 15598758
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