Grant Number:	5U01CA097427-08 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator:	Rutter, Carolyn
Organization:	Kaiser Foundation Health Plan Of Washington
Project Title:	Assessing the Impact of Colorectal Cancer Screening
Fiscal Year:	2009

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Microsimulation models can be used to estimate the effect of screening and changes in population risk on colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes, offering insights beyond those gained from either observational or randomized studies. Over the past two years, we have built a new microsimulation model for the natural history of CRC, and we are in the process of refining our screening model. We propose to use our model to estimate the impact of CRC screening on observed population trends in CRC incidence and mortality, expanding our focus to include the impact of risk factors on both observed and projected CRC outcomes. Our proposed work centers around three specific aims: Specific Aim 1: Estimating the effect of screening and polypectomy on trends in CRC incidence and mortality within the US population using our population-based microsimulation model. In particular, we will examine the impact of screening as practiced on CRC outcomes, and the potential impact of different guideline recommended screening strategies on CRC outcomes. Specific Aim 2: Extending our natural history model to incorporate the effects of individual risk factors (e.g., smoking, obesity) on CRC outcomes, and extending our screening model to explore the potential impact of new technologies on future trends in CRC outcomes. Explicit incorporation of risk factors is needed to estimate the effect of future changes in risk factors on outcomes, and to assess our Nation's ability to reduce CRC incidence and mortality. We will begin by estimating the effect of changes in a hypothetical risk factor on CRC outcomes, providing critical information about the relationship between risk factors and cancer outcomes. Ultimately, we will estimate the impact of changes in risk on CRC outcomes by building secular trends in risk factor behavior into our models. Specific Aim 3: Collaborating with both CISNET members and other investigators to address policy-relevant questions. Our proposed work is best carried out in collaboration with colleagues in the Cancer Incidence and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). The positive synergy of this group has enabled our team to rapidly develop and implement our microsimulation model for CRC.




Suspected Extracolonic Neoplasms Detected On Ct Colonography: Literature Review And Possible Outcomes
Authors: Wernli K.J. , Rutter C.M. , Dachman A.H. , Zafar H.M. .
Source: Academic Radiology, 2013 Jun; 20(6), p. 667-74.
PMID: 23465379
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Estimated Mean Sojourn Time Associated With Hemoccult Sensa For Detection Of Proximal And Distal Colorectal Cancer
Authors: Zheng W. , Rutter C.M. .
Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : A Publication Of The American Association For Cancer Research, Cosponsored By The American Society Of Preventive Oncology, 2012 Oct; 21(10), p. 1722-30.
PMID: 22911331
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Adverse events after screening and follow-up colonoscopy.
Authors: Rutter C.M. , Johnson E. , Miglioretti D.L. , Mandelson M.T. , Inadomi J. , Buist D.S. .
Source: Cancer Causes & Control : Ccc, 2012 Feb; 23(2), p. 289-96.
PMID: 22105578
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Comparative economic evaluation of data from the ACRIN National CT Colonography Trial with three cancer intervention and surveillance modeling network microsimulations.
Authors: Vanness D.J. , Knudsen A.B. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Rutter C.M. , Gareen I.F. , Herman B.A. , Kuntz K.M. , Zauber A.G. , van Ballegooijen M. , Feuer E.J. , et al. .
Source: Radiology, 2011 Nov; 261(2), p. 487-98.
PMID: 21813740
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Computer Disease Simulation Models: Integrating Evidence For Health Policy
Authors: Rutter,C.M. , Knudsen,A.B. , Pandharipande,P.V. .
Source: Academic Radiology, 2011 Sep; 18(9), p. 1077-86.
PMID: 21435924
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A systematic comparison of microsimulation models of colorectal cancer: the role of assumptions about adenoma progression.
Authors: Kuntz K.M. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Rutter C.M. , Knudsen A.B. , van Ballegooijen M. , Savarino J.E. , Feuer E.J. , Zauber A.G. .
Source: Medical Decision Making : An International Journal Of The Society For Medical Decision Making, 2011 Jul-Aug; 31(4), p. 530-9.
PMID: 21673186
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Clarifying differences in natural history between models of screening: the case of colorectal cancer.
Authors: van Ballegooijen M. , Rutter C.M. , Knudsen A.B. , Zauber A.G. , Savarino J.E. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Boer R. , Feuer E.J. , Habbema J.D. , Kuntz K.M. .
Source: Medical Decision Making : An International Journal Of The Society For Medical Decision Making, 2011 Jul-Aug; 31(4), p. 540-9.
PMID: 21673187
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Radiation-related cancer risks from CT colonography screening: a risk-benefit analysis.
Authors: Berrington de González A. , Kim K.P. , Knudsen A.B. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Rutter C.M. , Smith-Bindman R. , Yee J. , Kuntz K.M. , van Ballegooijen M. , Zauber A.G. , et al. .
Source: Ajr. American Journal Of Roentgenology, 2011 Apr; 196(4), p. 816-23.
PMID: 21427330
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Dynamic microsimulation models for health outcomes: a review.
Authors: Rutter C.M. , Zaslavsky A.M. , Feuer E.J. .
Source: Medical Decision Making : An International Journal Of The Society For Medical Decision Making, 2011 Jan-Feb; 31(1), p. 10-8.
PMID: 20484091
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Evaluating Risk Factor Assumptions: A Simulation-based Approach
Authors: Rutter,C.M. , Miglioretti,D.L. , Savarino,J.E. .
Source: Bmc Medical Informatics And Decision Making, 2011; 11, p. 55.
PMID: 21899767
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Cost-effectiveness of computed tomographic colonography screening for colorectal cancer in the medicare population.
Authors: Knudsen A.B. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Rutter C.M. , Savarino J.E. , van Ballegooijen M. , Kuntz K.M. , Zauber A.G. .
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2010-08-18 00:00:00.0; 102(16), p. 1238-52.
EPub date: 2010-08-18 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 20664028
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An evidence-based microsimulation model for colorectal cancer: validation and application.
Authors: Rutter C.M. , Savarino J.E. .
Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : A Publication Of The American Association For Cancer Research, Cosponsored By The American Society Of Preventive Oncology, 2010 Aug; 19(8), p. 1992-2002.
PMID: 20647403
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Bayesian Calibration Of Microsimulation Models
Authors: Rutter C.M. , Miglioretti D.L. , Savarino J.E. .
Source: Journal Of The American Statistical Association, 2009-12-01 00:00:00.0; 104(488), p. 1338-1350.
PMID: 20076767
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Looking Back At Prospective Studies
Authors: Rutter,C.M. .
Source: Academic Radiology, 2008 Nov; 15(11), p. 1463-6.
PMID: 18995197
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Improvement in the diagnostic evaluation of a positive fecal occult blood test in an integrated health care organization.
Authors: Miglioretti D.L. , Rutter C.M. , Bradford S.C. , Zauber A.G. , Kessler L.G. , Feuer E.J. , Grossman D.C. .
Source: Medical Care, 2008 Sep; 46(9 Suppl 1), p. S91-6.
PMID: 18725839
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A hierarchical non-homogenous Poisson model for meta-analysis of adenoma counts.
Authors: Rutter C.M. , Yu O. , Miglioretti D.L. .
Source: Statistics In Medicine, 2007-01-15 00:00:00.0; 26(1), p. 98-109.
PMID: 16372387
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Transcriptional Targeting Of Adenovirally Delivered Tumor Necrosis Factor Alpha By Temozolomide In Experimental Glioblastoma
Authors: Yamini,B. , Yu,X. , Gillespie,G.Y. , Kufe,D.W. , Weichselbaum,R.R. .
Source: Cancer Research, 2004-09-15 00:00:00.0; 64(18), p. 6381-4.
PMID: 15374943
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