This project will provide the first econometric evidence of the impact of cigarette prices, excise taxes, and other tobacco control policies on smoking escalation and regression. A variety of smoking pathways will be investigated including the transitions from experimentation to daily use, from daily use to heavy use, from heavy use to moderate use, and finally from moderate use to infrequent use or cessation. The investigation of smoking transitions requires the use of high quality longitudinal data that can accurately measure individual's cigarette consumption, cigarette prices, government enacted policies, income, and other socio-demographic factors over a relatively long period of time. The data that will be employed in this study consist of panels formed from the nationally representative surveys of high school seniors conducted by the Institute of Social Research (ISR) at the University of Michigan as part of the Monitoring the Future project. These surveys focus on the use of cigarettes, alcohol, and illicit drugs among youth adults. The data will contain 35 panels formed from high school senior surveys conducted from 1976 through 1993. Each panel contains approximately 1,200 individuals. One panel from each baseline year are re-surveyed for the first time one year after follow-ups for both panels are conducted at two-year intervals for up to seven follow-ups on each individual. The panel data will be augmented with a number of variables reflecting state and local tobacco control policies including: state and local cigarette prices, state cigarette excise taxes, and state and local clean indoor air laws. Discrete-time hazard methods, competing risk methods, and frailty methods will be employed to assess the impact prices, taxes, and tobacco control policies have on individual's probability of making transitions from one smoking state to another.
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