Grant Number:	1U01CA097431-01 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator:	Kimmel, Marek
Organization:	Rice University
Project Title:	Modeling Lung Cancer: Risks, Progression, and Screening
Fiscal Year:	2002

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We propose to construct a realistic statistical model of lung cancer risk and progression that will make it possible to relate current trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality to past trends in smoking in the US population. We depart from existing approaches by having the model include genetic and behavioral determinants of susceptibility, progression of the disease from precursor lesions through early localized tumors to disseminated disease, detection by various modalities, and medical intervention. Using model estimates as a foundation, we intend to predict mortality reduction caused by primary prevention, and early-detection and intervention programs, under different scenarios. This includes utilization of genetic indicators of susceptibility to lung cancer to define the highest-risk subgroups of the high-risk behavior population (smokers). To allow for uncertainty in the various sources of data we will develop parameter estimation techniques using simulation and Bayesian hierarchical modeling approaches. Along with developing new methodology, we will apply our techniques to a variety of data sets available to us, which will allow calibration and validation of the model. To investigate and develop lung cancer susceptibility, we will use tobacco impact estimates developed at the University of California at San Diego, as well as case-control genetic data on lung cancer maintained by the Epidemiology Department at MD Anderson Cancer Center. To investigate incidence of lung cancer we will use public registry data of the SEER type. For disease progression, early detection and intervention, we will use data from the NCI lung cancer chest X-ray screening studies, and the recent ELCAP CT-scan screening study developed at Weill Medical College of Cornell University. The team assembled for the proposed work includes researchers at Rice University, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Weill Medical College of Cornell University and University of California at San Diego, whose documented expertise spans population studies, modeling of natural history of cancer, impact of screening, Bayesian techniques, genetic epidemiology, statistical genetics and risks analysis of smoking. Data used and generated by the project, as well as software, will be made available to CISNET members.




Modeling the natural history and detection of lung cancer based on smoking behavior.
Authors: Chen X. , Foy M. , Kimmel M. , Gorlova O.Y. .
Source: Plos One, 2014; 9(4), p. e93430.
PMID: 24705368
Related Citations

Small Median Tumor Diameter At Cure Threshold (<20 Mm) Among Aggressive Non-small Cell Lung Cancers In Male Smokers Predicts Both Chest X-ray And Ct Screening Outcomes In A Novel Simulation Framework
Authors: Goldwasser D.L. , Kimmel M. .
Source: International Journal Of Cancer, 2013-01-01 00:00:00.0; 132(1), p. 189-97.
PMID: 22510979
Related Citations

Chapter 1:The impact of the reduction in tobacco smoking on U.S. lung cancer mortality, 1975-2000: an introduction to the problem.
Authors: Feuer E.J. , Levy D.T. , McCarthy W.J. .
Source: Risk Analysis : An Official Publication Of The Society For Risk Analysis, 2012 Jul; 32 Suppl 1, p. S6-S13.
PMID: 22882893
Related Citations

Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000.
Authors: Moolgavkar S.H. , Holford T.R. , Levy D.T. , Kong C.Y. , Foy M. , Clarke L. , Jeon J. , Hazelton W.D. , Meza R. , Schultz F. , et al. .
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2012-04-04 00:00:00.0; 104(7), p. 541-8.
EPub date: 2012-04-04 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 22423009
Related Citations

Initial medical attention on patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer.
Authors: Chen X. , Gorlov I.P. , Ying J. , Merriman K.W. , Kimmel M. , Lu C. , Reyes-Gibby C.C. , Gorlova O.Y. .
Source: Plos One, 2012; 7(3), p. e32644.
PMID: 22412901
Related Citations

Association of smoking with tumor size at diagnosis in non-small cell lung cancer.
Authors: Chen X. , Gorlov I.P. , Merriman K.W. , Weng S.F. , Foy M. , Keener G. , Amos C.I. , Spitz M.R. , Kimmel M. , Gorlova O.Y. .
Source: Lung Cancer (amsterdam, Netherlands), 2011 Dec; 74(3), p. 378-83.
PMID: 21645942
Related Citations

A Smoking-based Carcinogenesis Model For Lung Cancer Risk Prediction
Authors: Foy M. , Spitz M.R. , Kimmel M. , Gorlova O.Y. .
Source: International Journal Of Cancer, 2011-10-15 00:00:00.0; 129(8), p. 1907-13.
PMID: 21140453
Related Citations

Modeling The Mortality Reduction Due To Computed Tomography Screening For Lung Cancer
Authors: Foy M. , Yip R. , Chen X. , Kimmel M. , Gorlova O.Y. , Henschke C.I. .
Source: Cancer, 2011-06-15 00:00:00.0; 117(12), p. 2703-8.
PMID: 21656748
Related Citations

Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria.
Authors: Foy M. , Chen X. , Kimmel M. , Gorlova O.Y. .
Source: Bmc Medical Research Methodology, 2011-05-11 00:00:00.0; 11, p. 64.
EPub date: 2011-05-11 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 21569346
Related Citations

Modeling Excess Lung Cancer Risk Among Screened Arm Participants In The Mayo Lung Project
Authors: Goldwasser D.L. , Kimmel M. .
Source: Cancer, 2010-01-01 00:00:00.0; 116(1), p. 122-31.
PMID: 19918924
Related Citations

Estimation Of The Effects Of Smoking And Dna Repair Capacity On Coefficients Of A Carcinogenesis Model For Lung Cancer
Authors: Deng L. , Kimmel M. , Foy M. , Spitz M. , Wei Q. , Gorlova O. .
Source: International Journal Of Cancer, 2009-05-01 00:00:00.0; 124(9), p. 2152-8.
PMID: 19123470
Related Citations

Candidate Pathways And Genes For Prostate Cancer: A Meta-analysis Of Gene Expression Data
Authors: Gorlov,I.P. , Byun,J. , Gorlova,O.Y. , Aparicio,A.M. , Efstathiou,E. , Logothetis,C.J. .
Source: Bmc Medical Genomics, 2009; 2, p. 48.
PMID: 19653896
Related Citations