Grant Number:	1U01CA088248-01 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator:	Plevritis, Sylvia
Organization:	Stanford University
Project Title:	Breast Cancer Trend Analysis Using Stochastic Simulation
Fiscal Year:	2000

The goals of this NCI cooperative research program (CISNET) are to explain the US breast cancer incidence and mortality trends, and to predict changes in the trends with new interventions. We will collaboratively with CISNET investigators toward developing validated computer-based simulation analyses that will attain these goals. In addition, we will contribute to CISNET novel research ideas and validated methods to quantify the impact of biological factors on breast cancer trends. The specific aims of this research effort will be: (1) to develop a stochastic model of the natural history of breast cancer that describes the growth rate of the primary tumor, the size of the primary tumor when it sheds its first metastatic cell, and the growth rate of metastases; (2) to simulate the progression of breast cancer in the US population using a natural history model of breast cancer; (3) to explain and predict US breast cancer trends with validated computer simulation tools that incorporate a natural history model of the disease. Awareness of biological factors on the breast cancer trends may provide new insights for more effectively targeting future breast cancer control programs.




Introduction to the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Breast Cancer Models.
Authors: Alagoz O. , Berry D.A. , de Koning H.J. , Feuer E.J. , Lee S.J. , Plevritis S.K. , Schechter C.B. , Stout N.K. , Trentham-Dietz A. , Mandelblatt J.S. , et al. .
Source: Medical Decision Making : An International Journal Of The Society For Medical Decision Making, 2018 Apr; 38(1_suppl), p. 3S-8S.
PMID: 29554472
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Bridging population and tissue scale tumor dynamics: a new paradigm for understanding differences in tumor growth and metastatic disease.
Authors: Gallaher J. , Babu A. , Plevritis S. , Anderson A.R. .
Source: Cancer Research, 2014-01-15 00:00:00.0; 74(2), p. 426-35.
EPub date: 2014-01-15 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 24408919
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Feasibility evaluation of an online tool to guide decisions for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.
Authors: Schackmann E.A. , Munoz D.F. , Mills M.A. , Plevritis S.K. , Kurian A.W. .
Source: Familial Cancer, 2013 Mar; 12(1), p. 65-73.
PMID: 23086584
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A simulation model to predict the impact of prophylactic surgery and screening on the life expectancy of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.
Authors: Sigal B.M. , Munoz D.F. , Kurian A.W. , Plevritis S.K. .
Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : A Publication Of The American Association For Cancer Research, Cosponsored By The American Society Of Preventive Oncology, 2012 Jul; 21(7), p. 1066-77.
PMID: 22556274
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Online tool to guide decisions for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.
Authors: Kurian A.W. , Munoz D.F. , Rust P. , Schackmann E.A. , Smith M. , Clarke L. , Mills M.A. , Plevritis S.K. .
Source: Journal Of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal Of The American Society Of Clinical Oncology, 2012-02-10 00:00:00.0; 30(5), p. 497-506.
EPub date: 2012-02-10 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 22231042
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Comparing the benefits of screening for breast cancer and lung cancer using a novel natural history model.
Authors: Lin R.S. , Plevritis S.K. .
Source: Cancer Causes & Control : Ccc, 2012 Jan; 23(1), p. 175-85.
PMID: 22116537
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A simulation model investigating the impact of tumor volume doubling time and mammographic tumor detectability on screening outcomes in women aged 40-49 years.
Authors: Bailey S.L. , Sigal B.M. , Plevritis S.K. .
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2010-08-18 00:00:00.0; 102(16), p. 1263-71.
EPub date: 2010-08-18 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 20664027
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Survival analysis of cancer risk reduction strategies for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.
Authors: Kurian A.W. , Sigal B.M. , Plevritis S.K. .
Source: Journal Of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal Of The American Society Of Clinical Oncology, 2010-01-10 00:00:00.0; 28(2), p. 222-31.
EPub date: 2010-01-10 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 19996031
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Effects of mammography screening under different screening schedules: model estimates of potential benefits and harms.
Authors: Mandelblatt J.S. , Cronin K.A. , Bailey S. , Berry D.A. , de Koning H.J. , Draisma G. , Huang H. , Lee S.J. , Munsell M. , Plevritis S.K. , et al. .
Source: Annals Of Internal Medicine, 2009-11-17 00:00:00.0; 151(10), p. 738-47.
PMID: 19920274
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Cost-effectiveness of screening BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with breast magnetic resonance imaging.
Authors: Plevritis S.K. , Kurian A.W. , Sigal B.M. , Daniel B.L. , Ikeda D.M. , Stockdale F.E. , Garber A.M. .
Source: Jama, 2006-05-24 00:00:00.0; 295(20), p. 2374-84.
PMID: 16720823
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Effect of screening and adjuvant therapy on mortality from breast cancer.
Authors: Berry D.A. , Cronin K.A. , Plevritis S.K. , Fryback D.G. , Clarke L. , Zelen M. , Mandelblatt J.S. , Yakovlev A.Y. , Habbema J.D. , Feuer E.J. , et al. .
Source: The New England Journal Of Medicine, 2005-10-27 00:00:00.0; 353(17), p. 1784-92.
PMID: 16251534
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The effect of age, race, tumor size, tumor grade, and disease stage on invasive ductal breast cancer survival in the U.S. SEER database.
Authors: Rosenberg J. , Chia Y.L. , Plevritis S. .
Source: Breast Cancer Research And Treatment, 2005 Jan; 89(1), p. 47-54.
PMID: 15666196
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