Grant Number:	5R01CA078607-03 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator:	Zelen, Marvin
Organization:	Dana-Farber Cancer Institute
Project Title:	Statistical Issues in the Early Detection of Disease
Fiscal Year:	2000

DESCRIPTION: The major goals of this project are to investigate and develop statistical models and procedures related to the early detection chronic diseases. The research is motivated from current problems in the early detection of cancer --- especially breast cancer. The research is divided into three major areas: (i) planning clinical trials to evaluate the benefits of early detection of disease; (ii) estimation of parameters (sensitivities, pre-clinical sojourn time distributions) during the course of a trial as well as after the last scheduled examination; and (iii) develop and extend quantitative methods to aid public health planners in the planning of early detection programs to benefit larger populations. The major issues in planning large public health programs for the early detection of disease are: at which ages should individuals begin to participate, the time between examinations and the number of examinations. Methods will be developed for evaluating any proposed public health program. The economic and health implications of applying these models are potentially large. The major issues in planning early detection clinical trials are to take advantage of the special features of these trials; e.g., number of exams, spacing between exams, the changing incidence of disease with age, and the history of each subject with regard to earlier exams. Experimental design problems arise as in some disease area control groups (no exams) may not be feasible. The major issues in parameter estimation relate to having more than one detection modality, possibly resulting in different pre-clinical sojourn time distributions, ascertaining if sensitivity and sojourn time distributions are age dependent, compliance, and investigating if different detection modalities are independent.




Mortality modeling of early detection programs.
Authors: Lee S.J. , Zelen M. .
Source: Biometrics, 2008 Jun; 64(2), p. 386-95.
PMID: 17725809
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Modelling the early detection of breast cancer.
Authors: Lee S.J. , Zelen M. .
Source: Annals Of Oncology : Official Journal Of The European Society For Medical Oncology / Esmo, 2003 Aug; 14(8), p. 1199-202.
PMID: 12881377
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The Theory Of Case-control Studies For Early Detection Programs
Authors: Davidov O. , Zelen M. .
Source: Biostatistics (oxford, England), 2003 Jul; 4(3), p. 411-21.
PMID: 12925508
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Modeling And Optimization In Early Detection Programs With A Single Exam
Authors: Parmigiani G. , Skates S. , Zelen M. .
Source: Biometrics, 2002 Mar; 58(1), p. 30-6.
PMID: 11890325
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Testing the independence of two diagnostic tests.
Authors: Shen Y. , Wu D. , Zelen M. .
Source: Biometrics, 2001 Dec; 57(4), p. 1009-17.
PMID: 11764239
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Screening Sensitivity And Sojourn Time From Breast Cancer Early Detection Clinical Trials: Mammograms And Physical Examinations
Authors: Shen Y. , Zelen M. .
Source: Journal Of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal Of The American Society Of Clinical Oncology, 2001-08-01 00:00:00.0; 19(15), p. 3490-9.
PMID: 11481355
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