Grant Details
Grant Number: |
5R01CA077005-02 Interpret this number |
Primary Investigator: |
Kenkel, Donald |
Organization: |
Cornell University |
Project Title: |
Economic Analysis of Student and Dropout Smoking |
Fiscal Year: |
1998 |
Abstract
Cigarette smoking has been called the most important preventable
cause of death and is estimated to lead to over 40,000 deaths each
year. Recent data illustrate an alarming upward trend in smoking
rates among those in their high school years. This is particularly
important because data show that of adults who had ever smoked
daily, 89 percent has tried a cigarette before the age of 18 and 71.2
had begun smoking daily by age of 18. Moreover, the onset of
smoking at a young age is associated with a higher subsequent risk of
heavy smoking and of smoking-attributable mortality. The principal
aim of the proposed research is to develop policy relevant inforamtion
about the responsiveness of youth smoking to changes in tobacco
excise taxes. To accomplish this, the project will conduct econometric
analyses of the determinants of youth cigareet demand and the onset
of smoking. The project wil utilize an exceptionally rich longiduinal
secondary data set, the National Educational Longitudianl Study of
1988 (NELS:88). NELS:88 is a large-scale, nationally Representative
study providing a variety of data on American 8th graders in 1988,
with follow-ups of the same students in 1990, 1992, and 1994. Four
distinct advantages of the NELS:88 data allow for innovative research
in this area: its longitudinal nature; the inclusion of detailed cigareete
consumption measure; availability of a rich set of socioeconomic,
school, and parent characteristics; and the availability of all of this
information on both high school graduates and dropouts. The
econometric investigation consists of two models. Model I consists of
cigarette demand functions for 8th, 10th, and 12th graders. In this
model the three years of data from NELS:88 will essentially be treated
as three separate cross-sections. The empirical results willprovide
important information on the responsiveness of youth smoking to
cigarette excise taxes and how this responsiveness changes during their
high schoool years. The project will conduct separate econometric
analyses on the sub-samples of youths who remain in school versus
those youths who eventually drop out. Model 2 is an econometric
investigation of the determinants of the onset of smoking. This part of
the study exploits the fact that NELS:88 follows the same students
over time, providing longitudinal data. Alternative measures will be
created of the onset of any smoking, daily smoking, and heavy
smoking. In addition, the analysis will analyze onset between 8th and
10th grade, and onset between 8th and 12 grade. The central focus on
the analysis will be on whether high and increasing cigarette excise
taxes decrease the probability of smoking onset for high school
students and eventual dropouts. In both Model I and Model 2 the
multivariate analysis will include measures of state laws restricting
yough access to cigarettes, as well as a wide variety of characteristics of
the student respondent, the respondent's parents, teachers, and school
characteristics that was collected in each year of NELS:88.
Publications
None