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Grant Details

Grant Number: 5R01CA030931-16 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator: Holford, Theodore
Organization: Yale University
Project Title: Systematic Analysis-Cancer Incidence and Mortality
Fiscal Year: 1998
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Abstract

DESCRIPTION: (Adapted from the Investigator's Abstract) Cancer registries provide valuable information on trends for cancer incidence in a specified population and the Connecticut Tumor Registry is the oldest registry of its kind. An appropriate understanding of these trends often provides valuable clues for the etiology of cancer, demonstrates the success of the health care system in maintaining the health of the population, and assists in planning for future health care requirements of a population. However, valid interpretations of these trends require a good understanding of the interplay of different perspectives of time, including the effects of age, time period of diagnosis, and birth cohort. These effects are best appreciated through the active collaboration of researchers with a good understanding of disease etiology, as well as the statistical complications that arise from these analyses. The investigator's previous work in this area has concentrated on the development and application of methods for using age-period-cohort models to understand cancer incidence trends. These methods have been used in an extensive analysis of all the major cancer sites, and the investigators have recently used similar approaches to better understand trends by histologic type, stage, and tumor subsite. In addition, they have developed models for lung cancer incidence that incorporate external information about the carcinogenesis process, as well as population-based information on cigarette smoking. These methods have helped many epidemiologists to better understand incidence and mortality trends, although they also can point out fundamental limitations to our understanding that arise from the unidentifiability of some effects. A rich array of tools is now available for descriptive epidemiology and these need to be made more accessible while, at the same time, there are promising new areas that require further study before they can be recommended for general use. This is a proposal to build on work that has developed and applied a variety of statistical methods to the study of the descriptive epidemiology of cancer with the goal of obtaining a better understanding of the reasons for existing trends in cancer incidence and mortality. The specific aims of this work are: 1. Study the importance of histology, stage of disease, and tumor subsite on time trends for the following malignancies: cervix, prostate, brain, ovary, thyroid, endometrium, bladder, and testis. 2. Develop a comprehensive model for breast cancer incidence and mortality in order to better understand the role of trends in detecting earlier stage tumors on the discrepancy between incidence and mortality trends; and, 3. Develop a Bayes model for incorporating estimates of trends in known risk factors for disease on incidence in order to quantify the extent to which existing knowledge about etiology can explain observed trends in cancer incidence using information on the effect of cigarette smoking on lung cancer incidence as an example to illustrate the method.

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Publications

The increase of Hodgkin's disease incidence among young adults. Experience in Connecticut, 1935-1992.
Authors: Chen Y.T. , Zheng T. , Chou M.C. , Boyle P. , Holford T.R. .
Source: Cancer, 1997-06-01; 79(11), p. 2209-18.
PMID: 9179069
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Are cancers of the salivary gland increasing? Experience from Connecticut, USA.
Authors: Zheng T. , Holford T.R. , Chen Y. , Ward B. , Liu W. , Flannery J. , Boyle P. .
Source: International journal of epidemiology, 1997 Apr; 26(2), p. 264-71.
PMID: 9169160
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Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on incidence of bladder cancer in Connecticut, 1935-1992.
Authors: Zheng T. , Holford T.R. , Chen Y. , Ma J.Z. , Mayne S.T. , Liu W. , Flannery J. , Boyle P. .
Source: International journal of cancer, 1996-10-09; 68(2), p. 172-6.
PMID: 8900423
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Second solid tumors in patients with Hodgkin's disease cured after radiation or chemotherapy plus adjuvant low-dose radiation.
Authors: Salloum E. , Doria R. , Schubert W. , Zelterman D. , Holford T. , Roberts K.B. , Farber L.R. , Kiehl R.K. , Cardinale J. , Cooper D.L. .
Source: Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, 1996 Sep; 14(9), p. 2435-43.
PMID: 8823321
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Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on incidence of thyroid cancer in Connecticut, 1935-1992.
Authors: Zheng T. , Holford T.R. , Chen Y. , Ma J.Z. , Flannery J. , Liu W. , Russi M. , Boyle P. .
Source: International journal of cancer, 1996-08-07; 67(4), p. 504-9.
PMID: 8759608
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The continuing increase in adenocarcinoma of the uterine cervix: a birth cohort phenomenon.
Authors: Zheng T. , Holford T.R. , Ma Z. , Chen Y. , Liu W. , Ward B.A. , Boyle P. .
Source: International journal of epidemiology, 1996 Apr; 25(2), p. 252-8.
PMID: 9119549
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A model for the effect of cigarette smoking on lung cancer incidence in Connecticut.
Authors: Holford T.R. , Zhang Z. , Zheng T. , McKay L.A. .
Source: Statistics in medicine, 1996-03-30; 15(6), p. 565-80.
PMID: 8731001
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Continuing increase in incidence of germ-cell testis cancer in young adults: experience from Connecticut, USA, 1935-1992.
Authors: Zheng T. , Holford T.R. , Ma Z. , Ward B.A. , Flannery J. , Boyle P. .
Source: International journal of cancer, 1996-03-15; 65(6), p. 723-9.
PMID: 8631581
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Second solid malignancies after combined modality therapy for Hodgkin's disease.
Authors: Doria R. , Holford T. , Farber L.R. , Prosnitz L.R. , Cooper D.L. .
Source: Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, 1995 Aug; 13(8), p. 2016-22.
PMID: 7636543
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Time trend in pancreatic cancer incidence in Connecticut, 1935-1990.
Authors: Zheng T. , Holford T.R. , Ward B.A. , McKay L. , Flannery J. , Boyle P. .
Source: International journal of cancer, 1995-05-29; 61(5), p. 622-7.
PMID: 7768634
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Time trend and the age-period-cohort effect on the incidence of histologic types of lung cancer in Connecticut, 1960-1989.
Authors: Zheng T. , Holford T.R. , Boyle P. , Chen Y. , Ward B.A. , Flannery J. , Mayne S.T. .
Source: Cancer, 1994-09-01; 74(5), p. 1556-67.
PMID: 8062189
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Age-period-cohort modelling of large-bowel-cancer incidence by anatomic sub-site and sex in Denmark.
Authors: Dubrow R. , Johansen C. , Skov T. , Holford T.R. .
Source: International journal of cancer, 1994-08-01; 58(3), p. 324-9.
PMID: 8050812
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Malignant melanoma incidence in Connecticut (United States): time trends and age-period-cohort modeling by anatomic site.
Authors: Chen Y.T. , Zheng T. , Holford T.R. , Berwick M. , Dubrow R. .
Source: Cancer causes & control : CCC, 1994 Jul; 5(4), p. 341-50.
PMID: 8080946
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Time trends in the incidence of renal carcinoma: analysis of Connecticut Tumor Registry data, 1935-1989.
Authors: Katz D.L. , Zheng T. , Holford T.R. , Flannery J. .
Source: International journal of cancer, 1994-07-01; 58(1), p. 57-63.
PMID: 8014016
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Estimating age, period and cohort effects using the multistage model for cancer.
Authors: Holford T.R. , Zhang Z. , McKay L.A. .
Source: Statistics in medicine, 1994-01-15; 13(1), p. 23-41.
PMID: 9061838
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The time trend and age-period-cohort effects on incidence of adenocarcinoma of the stomach in Connecticut from 1955-1989.
Authors: Zheng T. , Mayne S.T. , Holford T.R. , Boyle P. , Liu W. , Chen Y. , Mador M. , Flannery J. .
Source: Cancer, 1993-07-15; 72(2), p. 330-40.
PMID: 8319166
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Age-period-cohort modelling of large-bowel-cancer incidence by anatomic sub-site and sex in Connecticut.
Authors: Dubrow R. , Bernstein J. , Holford T.R. .
Source: International journal of cancer, 1993-04-01; 53(6), p. 907-13.
PMID: 8473049
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A reversal in the long-term increase in deaths attributable to malignant melanoma.
Authors: Roush G.C. , McKay L. , Holford T.R. .
Source: Cancer, 1992-04-01; 69(7), p. 1714-20.
PMID: 1551056
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Understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates.
Authors: Holford T.R. .
Source: Annual review of public health, 1991; 12, p. 425-57.
PMID: 2049144
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Trends in female breast cancer in Connecticut and the United States.
Authors: Holford T.R. , Roush G.C. , McKay L.A. .
Source: Journal of clinical epidemiology, 1991; 44(1), p. 29-39.
PMID: 1986055
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Log-linear models for the analysis of matched cohort studies.
Authors: Holford T.R. , Bracken M.B. , Eskenazi B. .
Source: American journal of epidemiology, 1989 Dec; 130(6), p. 1247-53.
PMID: 2589315
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Simultaneous interval estimates of the odds ratio in studies with two or more comparisons.
Authors: Holford T.R. , Walter S.D. , Dunnett C.W. .
Source: Journal of clinical epidemiology, 1989; 42(5), p. 427-34.
PMID: 2732770
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Patterns of invasive melanoma in the Connecticut Tumor Registry. Is the long-term increase real?
Authors: Roush G.C. , Schymura M.J. , Holford T.R. .
Source: Cancer, 1988-06-15; 61(12), p. 2586-95.
PMID: 3365679
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Time and age trends for sinonasal cancer in Connecticut incidence and US mortality rates.
Authors: Roush G.C. , Schymura M.J. , Stevenson J.M. , Holford T.R. .
Source: Cancer, 1987-08-01; 60(3), p. 422-8.
PMID: 3594381
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Risk for cutaneous melanoma in recent Connecticut birth cohorts.
Authors: Roush G.C. , Schymura M.J. , Holford T.R. .
Source: American journal of public health, 1985 Jun; 75(6), p. 679-82.
PMID: 4003640
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Time period compared to birth cohort in Connecticut incidence rates for twenty-five malignant neoplasms.
Authors: Roush G.C. , Schymura M.J. , Holford T.R. , White C. , Flannery J.T. .
Source: Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 1985 Apr; 74(4), p. 779-88.
PMID: 3857375
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A population-based study of survival after scrotal carcinoma.
Authors: Roush G.C. , Fischer D.B. , Flannery J.T. .
Source: Cancer, 1985-02-01; 55(3), p. 666-71.
PMID: 3965115
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Secular and age distribution of scrotal cancer in Connecticut and a review of United States literature.
Authors: Roush G.C. , Schymura M.J. , Flannery J.T. .
Source: Cancer, 1984-08-01; 54(3), p. 596-601.
PMID: 6733690
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