Grant Number:	5U01CA253858-05 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator:	Meza, Rafael
Organization:	Provincial Health Services Authority
Project Title:	Comparative Modeling of Lung Cancer Prevention, Early Detection and Treatment Interventions
Fiscal Year:	2023

Project Summary Abstract Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer related mortality in the US and globally— responsible for ~1.8 million deaths annually. As collaborative investigators of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Lung Working Group (LWG), we have contributed to the development of US national strategies for reducing the lung cancer burden by quantifying the impact of tobacco control on smoking, lung cancer, and overall mortality, and by evaluating the population benefits and harms of lung cancer screening in the US. Due to ongoing reductions in smoking in the US, lung cancer mortality is projected to continue declining. However, lung cancer is still expected to result in over 4 million deaths over the next 50 years. Thus, in addition to tobacco control efforts, a focus on early detection and treatment interventions will be critical to further reduce the lung cancer burden in the US. Moreover, as new tobacco products, such as e-cigarettes (e-cigs), become more popular, there are concerns that the gains achieved in the fight against smoking could reverse. We propose to continue our work and extend our models to assess the impact of 1) future tobacco control interventions in the ever-changing tobacco market landscape, 2) improvements in lung cancer screening and other emerging early detection strategies, 3) innovations in lung cancer treatment, and importantly, 4) their synergistic interactions on lung cancer rates and overall mortality in the US and globally.




Accelerating progress to reduce the cancer burden through prevention and control in the United States.
Authors: Goddard K.A.B. , Feuer E.J. , Umar A. , Castle P.E. .
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2025-01-01 00:00:00.0; 117(1), p. 20-28.
PMID: 39222932
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Analysis of Lung Cancer Incidence in Non-Hispanic Black and White Americans using a Multistage Carcinogenesis Model.
Authors: Skolnick S. , Cao P. , Jeon J. , Park S.L. , Stram D.O. , Le Marchand L. , Meza R. .
Source: Cancer Causes & Control : Ccc, 2024-11-19 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2024-11-19 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 39560884
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Birth-cohort patterns of e-cigarette and other tobacco use among adolescents in the US.
Authors: Torres-Alvarez R. , Jeon J. , Levy D.T. , Meza R. .
Source: Preventive Medicine, 2024-06-19 00:00:00.0; 185, p. 108049.
EPub date: 2024-06-19 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 38906278
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The Impact of Model Assumptions on Personalized Lung Cancer Screening Recommendations.
Authors: Ten Haaf K. , de Nijs K. , Simoni G. , Alban A. , Cao P. , Sun Z. , Yong J. , Jeon J. , Toumazis I. , Han S.S. , et al. .
Source: Medical Decision Making : An International Journal Of The Society For Medical Decision Making, 2024-05-13 00:00:00.0; , p. 272989X241249182.
EPub date: 2024-05-13 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 38738534
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The potential impact of removing a ban on electronic nicotine delivery systems using the Mexico smoking and vaping model (SAVM).
Authors: Sánchez-Romero L.M. , Li Y. , Zavala-Arciniega L. , Gallegos-Carrillo K. , Thrasher J.F. , Meza R. , Levy D.T. .
Source: Medrxiv : The Preprint Server For Health Sciences, 2024-04-30 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2024-04-30 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 38746147
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The Benefits and Harms of Lung Cancer Screening in Individuals With Comorbidities.
Authors: Kale M.S. , Sigel K. , Arora A. , Ferket B.S. , Wisnivesky J. , Kong C.Y. .
Source: Jto Clinical And Research Reports, 2024 Mar; 5(3), p. 100635.
EPub date: 2024-01-13 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 38450056
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A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility Among Cancer Survivors Who Ever Smoked.
Authors: Wang Q. , Hsu M.L. , Lin J.J. , Wisnivesky J. , Cullen J. , Dowlati A. , Kong C.Y. .
Source: Journal Of General Internal Medicine, 2024-02-06 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2024-02-06 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 38321314
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Responses to real-world and hypothetical menthol flavor bans among US young adults who smoke menthol cigarettes.
Authors: Tam J. , Jimenez Mendoza E. , Buckell J. , Sindelar J. , Meza R. .
Source: Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal Of The Society For Research On Nicotine And Tobacco, 2023-12-26 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2023-12-26 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 38147008
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Responses to real-world and hypothetical e-cigarette flavor bans among US young adults who use flavored e-cigarettes.
Authors: Tam J. , Jimenez Mendoza E. , Buckell J. , Sindelar J. , Meza R. .
Source: Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal Of The Society For Research On Nicotine And Tobacco, 2023-12-23 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2023-12-23 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 38141252
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Contribution of smoking, disease history, and survival to lung cancer disparities in Black individuals.
Authors: Skolnick S. , Cao P. , Jeon J. , Meza R. .
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute. Monographs, 2023-11-08 00:00:00.0; 2023(62), p. 204-211.
PMID: 37947334
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Data gaps and opportunities for modeling cancer health equity.
Authors: Trentham-Dietz A. , Corley D.A. , Del Vecchio N.J. , Greenlee R.T. , Haas J.S. , Hubbard R.A. , Hughes A.E. , Kim J.J. , Kobrin S. , Li C.I. , et al. .
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute. Monographs, 2023-11-08 00:00:00.0; 2023(62), p. 246-254.
PMID: 37947335
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Assessing the impact of increasing lung screening eligibility by relaxing the maximum years-since-quit threshold. A simulation modeling study.
Authors: Meza R. , Cao P. , de Nijs K. , Jeon J. , Smith R.A. , Ten Haaf K. , de Koning H. .
Source: Cancer, 2023-11-01 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2023-11-01 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 37909874
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Estimated US Cancer Deaths Prevented With Increased Use of Lung, Colorectal, Breast, and Cervical Cancer Screening.
Authors: Knudsen A.B. , Trentham-Dietz A. , Kim J.J. , Mandelblatt J.S. , Meza R. , Zauber A.G. , Castle P.E. , Feuer E.J. .
Source: Jama Network Open, 2023-11-01 00:00:00.0; 6(11), p. e2344698.
EPub date: 2023-11-01 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 37991759
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Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Patterns by Family Income in the U.S.
Authors: Jeon J. , Cao P. , Fleischer N.L. , Levy D.T. , Holford T.R. , Meza R. , Tam J. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2023 Apr; 64(4 Suppl 1), p. S32-S41.
EPub date: 2023-01-16 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 36653231
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Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories by Race and Ethnicity in the U.S.
Authors: Meza R. , Cao P. , Jeon J. , Fleischer N.L. , Holford T.R. , Levy D.T. , Tam J. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2023 Apr; 64(4 Suppl 1), p. S11-S21.
EPub date: 2023-01-16 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 36653232
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Smoking Histories by State in the U.S.
Authors: Holford T.R. , McKay L. , Jeon J. , Tam J. , Cao P. , Fleischer N.L. , Levy D.T. , Meza R. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2023 Apr; 64(4 Suppl 1), p. S42-S52.
EPub date: 2023-01-16 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 36653233
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Mortality Relative Risks by Smoking, Race/Ethnicity, and Education.
Authors: Jeon J. , Inoue-Choi M. , Mok Y. , McNeel T.S. , Tam J. , Freedman N.D. , Meza R. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2023 Apr; 64(4 Suppl 1), p. S53-S62.
EPub date: 2023-02-11 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 36775754
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Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories in Brazil.
Authors: Tam J. , Jaffri M.A. , Mok Y. , Jeon J. , Szklo A.S. , Souza M.C. , Holford T.R. , Levy D.T. , Cao P. , Sánchez-Romero L.M. , et al. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2023 Apr; 64(4 Suppl 1), p. S63-S71.
EPub date: 2023-02-10 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 36775755
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Smoking Disparities by Level of Educational Attainment and Birth Cohort in the U.S.
Authors: Cao P. , Jeon J. , Tam J. , Fleischer N.L. , Levy D.T. , Holford T.R. , Meza R. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2023 Apr; 64(4 Suppl 1), p. S22-S31.
EPub date: 2023-01-16 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 36935129
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Summary and Concluding Remarks: Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Tam J. , Jeon J. , Holford T.R. , Fleischer N.L. , Meza R. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2023 Apr; 64(4 Suppl 1), p. S72-S79.
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Risk Model-Based Lung Cancer Screening : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
Authors: Toumazis I. , Cao P. , de Nijs K. , Bastani M. , Munshi V. , Hemmati M. , Ten Haaf K. , Jeon J. , Tammemägi M. , Gazelle G.S. , et al. .
Source: Annals Of Internal Medicine, 2023 Mar; 176(3), p. 320-332.
EPub date: 2023-02-07 00:00:00.0.
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Using the Past to Understand the Future of U.S. and Global Smoking Disparities: A Birth Cohort Perspective.
Authors: Tam J. , Levy D.T. , Feuer E.J. , Jeon J. , Holford T.R. , Meza R. .
Source: American Journal Of Preventive Medicine, 2023-02-11 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2023-02-11 00:00:00.0.
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Modeling cigarette smoking disparities between people with and without serious psychological distress in the US, 1997-2100.
Authors: Xi Q. , Meza R. , Leventhal A. , Tam J. .
Source: Preventive Medicine, 2023 Jan; 166, p. 107385.
EPub date: 2022-12-07 00:00:00.0.
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Evaluation of benefits and harms of adaptive screening schedules for lung cancer: A microsimulation study.
Authors: Cao P. , Jeon J. , Meza R. .
Source: Journal Of Medical Screening, 2022 Dec; 29(4), p. 260-267.
EPub date: 2022-08-22 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 35989646
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Sociodemographic survival disparities for lung cancer in the United States, 2000-2016.
Authors: Brouwer A.F. , Engle J.M. , Jeon J. , Meza R. .
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EPub date: 2022-07-22 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 35866998
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National Cancer Institute Smoking Cessation at Lung Examination Trials Brief Report: Baseline Characteristics and Comparison With the U.S. General Population of Lung Cancer Screening-Eligible Patients.
Authors: Meza R. , Jeon J. , Jimenez-Mendoza E. , Mok Y. , Cao P. , Foley K.L. , Chiles C. , Ostroff J.S. , Cinciripini P.M. , Minnix J. , et al. .
Source: Jto Clinical And Research Reports, 2022 Jul; 3(7), p. 100352.
EPub date: 2022-06-03 00:00:00.0.
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Factors Influencing the False Positive Rate in CT Lung Cancer Screening.
Authors: Hammer M.M. , Byrne S.C. , Kong C.Y. .
Source: Academic Radiology, 2022 02; 29 Suppl 2, p. S18-S22.
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Cost-effectiveness Evaluation of the 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation for Lung Cancer Screening.
Authors: Toumazis I. , de Nijs K. , Cao P. , Bastani M. , Munshi V. , Ten Haaf K. , Jeon J. , Gazelle G.S. , Feuer E.J. , de Koning H.J. , et al. .
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EPub date: 2021-10-21 00:00:00.0.
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Brief Report: Impact of joint lung cancer screening and cessation interventions under the new USPSTF recommendations.
Authors: Meza R. , Cao P. , Jeon J. , Taylor K.L. , Mandelblatt J.S. , Feuer E.J. , Lowy D.R. .
Source: Journal Of Thoracic Oncology : Official Publication Of The International Association For The Study Of Lung Cancer, 2021-10-11 00:00:00.0; , .
EPub date: 2021-10-11 00:00:00.0.
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Estimated Prevalence of Smoking and Smoking-Attributable Mortality Associated With Graphic Health Warnings on Cigarette Packages in the US From 2022 to 2100.
Authors: Tam J. , Jeon J. , Thrasher J.F. , Hammond D. , Holford T.R. , Levy D.T. , Meza R. .
Source: Jama Health Forum, 2021 Sep; 2(9), p. e212852.
EPub date: 2021-09-24 00:00:00.0.
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The Potential Impact of Widespread Cessation Treatment for Smokers With Depression.
Authors: Tam J. , Warner K.E. , Zivin K. , Taylor G.M.J. , Meza R. .
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EPub date: 2021-07-06 00:00:00.0.
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A comparison of tobacco product prevalence by different frequency of use thresholds across three US surveys.
Authors: Sánchez-Romero L.M. , Cadham C.J. , Hirschtick J.L. , Mattingly D.T. , Cho B. , Fleischer N.L. , Brouwer A. , Mistry R. , Land S.R. , Jeon J. , et al. .
Source: Bmc Public Health, 2021-06-24 00:00:00.0; 21(1), p. 1203.
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US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Sánchez-Romero L.M. , Travis N. , Yuan Z. , Li Y. , Skolnick S. , Jeon J. , Tam J. , Meza R. .
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Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model.
Authors: Levy D.T. , Tam J. , Sanchez-Romero L.M. , Li Y. , Yuan Z. , Jeon J. , Meza R. .
Source: Population Health Metrics, 2021-04-17 00:00:00.0; 19(1), p. 19.
EPub date: 2021-04-17 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 33865410
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Evaluation of the Benefits and Harms of Lung Cancer Screening With Low-Dose Computed Tomography: Modeling Study for the US Preventive Services Task Force.
Authors: Meza R. , Jeon J. , Toumazis I. , Ten Haaf K. , Cao P. , Bastani M. , Han S.S. , Blom E.F. , Jonas D.E. , Feuer E.J. , et al. .
Source: Jama, 2021-03-09 00:00:00.0; 325(10), p. 988-997.
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Cost-Effectiveness of Smoking Cessation Interventions in the Lung Cancer Screening Setting: A Simulation Study.
Authors: Cadham C.J. , Cao P. , Jayasekera J. , Taylor K.L. , Levy D.T. , Jeon J. , Elkin E. , Foley K.L. , Joseph A. , Kong C.Y. , et al. .
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EPub date: 2021-01-23 00:00:00.0.
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The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.
Authors: Sánchez-Romero L.M. , Zavala-Arciniega L. , Reynales-Shigematsu L.M. , de Miera-Juárez B.S. , Yuan Z. , Li Y. , Lau Y.K. , Fleischer N.L. , Meza R. , Thrasher J.F. , et al. .
Source: Plos One, 2021; 16(6), p. e0248215.
EPub date: 2021-06-21 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 34153063
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