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Grant Details

Grant Number: 5U01CA253912-03 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator: Kim, Jane
Organization: Harvard School Of Public Health
Project Title: Comparative Modeling to Inform Cervical Cancer Control Policies
Fiscal Year: 2022


Project Summary Despite successful cervical cancer screening in the United States (US), over 13,000 women develop and 4,000 women die from cervical cancer each year. The discovery of human papillomavirus (HPV) as the necessary cause of cervical cancer precipitated a surge of new evidence and development of innovative HPV-based technologies, both screening and prophylactic vaccination, that have allowed for significant changes in our approach to cervical cancer control over the past two decades. These new technologies represent tremendous opportunities for effective, equitable, and efficient cervical cancer programs in the US but also pose significant challenges for decision-making. Given the limited availability of outcomes data for new screening and vaccination approaches from empirical studies, policy-makers have become uniquely reliant on mathematical modeling to provide a synthesized evidence base for decision-making for cervical cancer control strategies. These models can be used to integrate the most up-to-date data, extrapolate short-term findings into long-term outcomes, and evaluate what-if scenarios that would otherwise be impractical or infeasible to conduct in clinical studies. The proposed CISNET project will represent the continued, productive collaboration of five independent modeling groups from the US, Australia, and the Netherlands that will leverage a series of state- of-the-art mathematical models of HPV and cervical carcinogenesis for comparative modeling. We will pursue analyses related to the impact of newly-revised screening and HPV vaccination guidelines, the comparative effectiveness of forthcoming screening and HPV vaccination strategies and approaches, the optimal routes for reducing cervical cancer disparities, the potential for cervical cancer elimination in the US, and optimal screening and vaccination strategies in women living with HIV. Our efforts will also involve wide dissemination of findings to various stakeholders to increase transparency and confidence in model-based analyses.


A model-based analysis of the health impacts of COVID-19 disruptions to primary cervical screening by time since last screen for current and future disruptions.
Authors: Burger E.A. , de Kok I.M.C.M. , O'Mahony J.F. , Rebolj M. , Jansen E.E.L. , de Bondt D.D. , Killen J. , Hanley S.J. , Castanon A. , Regan M.C. , et al. .
Source: eLife, 2022-10-12; 11, .
EPub date: 2022-10-12.
PMID: 36222673
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Modelling cervical cancer elimination using single-visit screening and treatment strategies in the context of high HIV prevalence: estimates for KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
Authors: Rao D.W. , Bayer C.J. , Liu G. , Chikandiwa A. , Sharma M. , Hathaway C.L. , Tan N. , Mugo N. , Barnabas R.V. .
Source: Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2022 Oct; 25(10), p. e26021.
PMID: 36225139
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Impact of catch-up human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical cancer incidence in Kenya: A mathematical modeling evaluation of HPV vaccination strategies in the context of moderate HIV prevalence.
Authors: Liu G. , Mugo N.R. , Bayer C. , Rao D.W. , Onono M. , Mgodi N.M. , Chirenje Z.M. , Njoroge B.W. , Tan N. , Bukusi E.A. , et al. .
Source: EClinicalMedicine, 2022 Mar; 45, p. 101306.
EPub date: 2022-02-19.
PMID: 35243272
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Cost-effectiveness analysis of the 2019 American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines for the management of abnormal cervical cancer screening tests and cancer precursors.
Authors: Munshi V.N. , Perkins R.B. , Sy S. , Kim J.J. .
Source: American journal of obstetrics and gynecology, 2022 Feb; 226(2), p. 228.e1-228.e9.
EPub date: 2021-09-20.
PMID: 34547295
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Impact of disruptions and recovery for established cervical screening programs across a range of high-income country program designs, using COVID-19 as an example: A modelled analysis.
Authors: Smith M.A. , Burger E.A. , Castanon A. , de Kok I.M.C.M. , Hanley S.J.B. , Rebolj M. , Hall M.T. , Jansen E.E.L. , Killen J. , O'Farrell X. , et al. .
Source: Preventive medicine, 2021 Oct; 151, p. 106623.
EPub date: 2021-05-23.
PMID: 34029578
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Cervical screening during the COVID-19 pandemic: optimising recovery strategies.
Authors: Castanon A. , Rebolj M. , Burger E.A. , de Kok I.M.C.M. , Smith M.A. , Hanley S.J.B. , Carozzi F.M. , Peacock S. , O'Mahony J.F. .
Source: The Lancet. Public health, 2021 Jul; 6(7), p. e522-e527.
EPub date: 2021-04-30.
PMID: 33939965
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Impact of COVID-19-related care disruptions on cervical cancer screening in the United States.
Authors: Burger E.A. , Jansen E.E. , Killen J. , Kok I.M. , Smith M.A. , Sy S. , Dunnewind N. , G Campos N. , Haas J.S. , Kobrin S. , et al. .
Source: Journal of medical screening, 2021 Jun; 28(2), p. 213-216.
EPub date: 2021-03-17.
PMID: 33730899
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The Differential Risk of Cervical Cancer in HPV-Vaccinated and -Unvaccinated Women: A Mathematical Modeling Study.
Authors: Naslazi E. , Hontelez J.A.C. , Naber S.K. , van Ballegooijen M. , de Kok I.M.C.M. .
Source: Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2021 May; 30(5), p. 912-919.
EPub date: 2021-04-09.
PMID: 33837119
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Human papillomavirus vaccination for adults aged 30 to 45 years in the United States: A cost-effectiveness analysis.
Authors: Kim J.J. , Simms K.T. , Killen J. , Smith M.A. , Burger E.A. , Sy S. , Regan C. , Canfell K. .
Source: PLoS medicine, 2021 Mar; 18(3), p. e1003534.
EPub date: 2021-03-11.
PMID: 33705382
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A Framework for Cervical Cancer Elimination in Low-and-Middle-Income Countries: A Scoping Review and Roadmap for Interventions and Research Priorities.
Authors: Shin M.B. , Liu G. , Mugo N. , Garcia P.J. , Rao D.W. , Bayer C.J. , Eckert L.O. , Pinder L.F. , Wasserheit J.N. , Barnabas R.V. .
Source: Frontiers in public health, 2021; 9, p. 670032.
EPub date: 2021-07-01.
PMID: 34277540
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Historical and projected hysterectomy rates in the USA: Implications for future observed cervical cancer rates and evaluating prevention interventions.
Authors: Simms K.T. , Yuill S. , Killen J. , Smith M.A. , Kulasingam S. , de Kok I.M.C.M. , van Ballegooijen M. , Burger E.A. , Regan C. , Kim J.J. , et al. .
Source: Gynecologic oncology, 2020 Sep; 158(3), p. 710-718.
EPub date: 2020-07-26.
PMID: 32723676
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