Skip to main content

COVID-19 Resources

What people with cancer should know: https://www.cancer.gov/coronavirus

Guidance for cancer researchers: https://www.cancer.gov/coronavirus-researchers

Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus

Get the latest research information from NIH: https://www.covid19.nih.gov

Grant Details

Grant Number: 1U01CA261277-01 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator: Lipsitch, Marc
Organization: Harvard School Of Public Health
Project Title: Casual, Statistical and Mathematical Modeling with Serologic Data
Fiscal Year: 2020


Abstract

We will develop methods to enhance the design and analysis of serologic studies of populations with respect to COVID-19, including methods that may be generalized in the future to address challenges raised by other seasonal diseases (such as influenza) and newly emerging diseases. In addition, we will use serologic data in innovative ways to underpin mathematical models that can project population-level trends. Early serosurveys using convenience samples of the population and serologic assays with variable and often uncertain sensitivity and specificity were heavily criticized, for unrepresentativeness and inadequate accounting for test characteristics, resulting in bias and overconfidence (unduly narrow confidence bounds). Aim 1 will develop methods for valid inference of seroprevalence, specifically by (a) accounting for biased sampling, (b) accounting for imperfect tests, and (c) developing and testing a novel approach to snowball sampling employing serologic tests to enhance outbreak detection and contact tracing. Valid comparisons that assess seroprotection—whether, how much, and how long an individual is protected by an immune response to a COVID-19 infection (specifically, by antibodies) against reinfection—rely on adequate control for confounding, an issue that arises in multiple ways specific to seroprotection studies. Likewise, waning of seroprotection may be inferred in error if studies are not carefully designed and analyzed. The unprecedented efforts to develop detailed serologic and systems serologic data sets provide new forms of data that can be leveraged to better inform these inferences. Aim 2 will develop a suite of methods to enhance causal inference in seroprotection studies, including (a) sample size and power calculations; and (b) improved exploitation of serological data to reduce biases due to confounding and risk compensation. Aim 3 will develop new mathematical modeling approaches and apply them to quantify the likely reduction in the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 due to various forms of risk heterogeneity and assortativeness in mixing. Aim 4 will develop models of COVID-19 transmission that accommodate emerging evidence about the duration and nature of immunity to infection, shedding, and symptoms, to obtain estimates of how illness attack rates will differ under varying assumptions about the progress of immunity. Aim 5 will develop transmission models to assess optimal cohorting arrangements in congregate facilities (eg prisons and nursing homes), with special attention to the nature of immunity required for these arrangements to be beneficial. Finally, vaccine supplies may be initially limited, necessitating efficient use of them. Aim 6 will investigate the use of serologic data in combination with other types of data to optimize allocation of scarce vaccines.



Publications

Estimating Vaccine Efficacy Against Transmission via Effect on Viral Load.
Authors: Kennedy-Shaffer L. , Kahn R. , Lipsitch M. .
Source: Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 2021-11-01; 32(6), p. 820-828.
PMID: 34469363
Related Citations

Covid-19 Breakthrough Infections in Vaccinated Health Care Workers.
Authors: Bergwerk M. , Gonen T. , Lustig Y. , Amit S. , Lipsitch M. , Cohen C. , Mandelboim M. , Levin E.G. , Rubin C. , Indenbaum V. , et al. .
Source: The New England journal of medicine, 2021-10-14; 385(16), p. 1474-1484.
EPub date: 2021-07-28.
PMID: 34320281
Related Citations

Decreased infectivity following BNT162b2 vaccination: A prospective cohort study in Israel.
Authors: Regev-Yochay G. , Amit S. , Bergwerk M. , Lipsitch M. , Leshem E. , Kahn R. , Lustig Y. , Cohen C. , Doolman R. , Ziv A. , et al. .
Source: The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2021 Aug; 7, p. 100150.
EPub date: 2021-07-07.
PMID: 34250518
Related Citations

Estimating epidemiologic dynamics from cross-sectional viral load distributions.
Authors: Hay J.A. , Kennedy-Shaffer L. , Kanjilal S. , Lennon N.J. , Gabriel S.B. , Lipsitch M. , Mina M.J. .
Source: Science (New York, N.Y.), 2021-07-16; 373(6552), .
EPub date: 2021-06-03.
PMID: 34083451
Related Citations

Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission.
Authors: Lipsitch M. , Kahn R. .
Source: Vaccine, 2021-07-05; 39(30), p. 4082-4088.
EPub date: 2021-06-12.
PMID: 34130883
Related Citations

Evaluation of post-introduction COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness: Summary of interim guidance of the World Health Organization.
Authors: Patel M.K. , Bergeri I. , Bresee J.S. , Cowling B.J. , Crowcroft N.S. , Fahmy K. , Hirve S. , Kang G. , Katz M.A. , Lanata C.F. , et al. .
Source: Vaccine, 2021-07-05; 39(30), p. 4013-4024.
EPub date: 2021-06-01.
PMID: 34119350
Related Citations

Comparative performance of between-population allocation strategies for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.
Authors: Joshi K. , Rumpler E. , Kennedy-Shaffer L. , Bosan R. , Lipsitch M. .
Source: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2021-06-21; , .
EPub date: 2021-06-21.
PMID: 34212161
Related Citations

Mathematical modeling to inform vaccination strategies and testing approaches for COVID-19 in nursing homes.
Authors: Kahn R. , Holmdahl I. , Reddy S. , Jernigan J. , Mina M.J. , Slayton R.B. .
Source: Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2021-06-04; , .
EPub date: 2021-06-04.
PMID: 34086877
Related Citations

Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission.
Authors: Lipsitch M. , Kahn R. .
Source: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2021-05-27; , .
EPub date: 2021-05-27.
PMID: 33655276
Related Citations

Modeling the impact of racial and ethnic disparities on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics.
Authors: Ma K.C. , Menkir T.F. , Kissler S. , Grad Y.H. , Lipsitch M. .
Source: eLife, 2021-05-18; 10, .
EPub date: 2021-05-18.
PMID: 34003112
Related Citations

Concerns about SARS-CoV-2 evolution should not hold back efforts to expand vaccination.
Authors: Cobey S. , Larremore D.B. , Grad Y.H. , Lipsitch M. .
Source: Nature reviews. Immunology, 2021 05; 21(5), p. 330-335.
EPub date: 2021-04-01.
PMID: 33795856
Related Citations

Disparities in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among individuals presenting for care in central North Carolina over a six-month period.
Authors: Lopez C.A. , Cunningham C.H. , Pugh S. , Brandt K. , Vanna U.P. , Delacruz M.J. , Guerra Q. , Goldstein S.J. , Hou Y.J. , Gearhart M. , et al. .
Source: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2021-03-30; , .
EPub date: 2021-03-30.
PMID: 33791743
Related Citations

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and epidemiological parameters with uncertainty from serological surveys.
Authors: Larremore D.B. , Fosdick B.K. , Bubar K.M. , Zhang S. , Kissler S.M. , Metcalf C.J.E. , Buckee C.O. , Grad Y.H. .
Source: eLife, 2021-03-05; 10, .
EPub date: 2021-03-05.
PMID: 33666169
Related Citations

Mathematical modeling to inform vaccination strategies and testing approaches for COVID-19 in nursing homes.
Authors: Kahn R. , Holmdahl I. , Reddy S. , Jernigan J. , Mina M.J. , Slayton R.B. .
Source: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2021-03-01; , .
EPub date: 2021-03-01.
PMID: 33688668
Related Citations

Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus.
Authors: Bubar K.M. , Reinholt K. , Kissler S.M. , Lipsitch M. , Cobey S. , Grad Y.H. , Larremore D.B. .
Source: Science (New York, N.Y.), 2021-02-26; 371(6532), p. 916-921.
EPub date: 2021-01-21.
PMID: 33479118
Related Citations

On the Effect of Age on the Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Households, Schools, and the Community.
Authors: Goldstein E. , Lipsitch M. , Cevik M. .
Source: The Journal of infectious diseases, 2021-02-13; 223(3), p. 362-369.
PMID: 33119738
Related Citations

How to detect and reduce potential sources of biases in studies of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19.
Authors: Accorsi E.K. , Qiu X. , Rumpler E. , Kennedy-Shaffer L. , Kahn R. , Joshi K. , Goldstein E. , Stensrud M.J. , Niehus R. , Cevik M. , et al. .
Source: European journal of epidemiology, 2021 Feb; 36(2), p. 179-196.
EPub date: 2021-02-25.
PMID: 33634345
Related Citations

Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus.
Authors: Bubar K.M. , Reinholt K. , Kissler S.M. , Lipsitch M. , Cobey S. , Grad Y.H. , Larremore D.B. .
Source: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2021-01-08; , .
EPub date: 2021-01-08.
PMID: 33330882
Related Citations




Back to Top