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Grant Details

Grant Number: 5U01CA097450-06 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator: Levy, David
Organization: Pacific Institute For Res And Evaluation
Project Title: A Simulation of Tobacco Policy, Smoking and Lung Cancer
Fiscal Year: 2007
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Abstract

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In this competing renewal, a macro-simulation model, known as SimSmoke, will be expanded and improved. SimSmoke is designed to predict smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths over time at the population level and to examine the effects of different public policies on these outcomes. The changes proposed are outlined in the following aims: (1) Extend the current SimSmoke work to better understand the relationship between smoking and lung cancer death rates. Analysis of this relationship will be improved by closer examination of exsmokers and age, gender, and racial/ethnic variations. The role of duration, quantity, and secondhand smoke also will be incorporated. (2) Expand the CISNET-I base case model beginning in 1975 to include background risks, tobacco control policies, secondhand smoke, and smoking intensity. Also, create a 25-year period over which to validate the tobacco control policy model by incorporating tobacco control policies beginning with the 1975 baseline. (3) Extend the model to consider the past and potential future role of telephone quitlines and the coordination of other smoking cessation strategies so that they are in line with current policy interests. (4) Model at least three states with the goal of making the model readily accessible for application to all states. Validate each of the state models in terms of its ability to predict smoking prevalence and lung-cancer-attributable deaths. (5) Complete a model of modified low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco for use as an alternative (to cigarettes) nicotine delivery product. Develop and extend this prototype harm-reduction model to assess other alternative nicotine delivery products and to address regulatory issues that are relevant to policymakers. (6) Update the C++ model and the various Excel models to incorporate the most recent data available and to make them more readily available to the public. Continue to develop documentation for and improve the user-friendliness of both the Excel and C++ versions of the model and make them available on the web. (7) Critically examine the methods that are traditionally used to project lung cancer deaths and determine how the estimates depend on the sensitivity to key parameters.

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Publications

Smoking-related deaths averted due to three years of policy progress.
Authors: Levy DT, Ellis JA, Mays D, Huang AT
Source: Bull World Health Organ, 2013 Jul 1;91(7), p. 509-18.
PMID: 23825878
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The Brazil SimSmoke policy simulation model: the effect of strong tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in a middle income nation.
Authors: Levy D, de Almeida LM, Szklo A
Source: PLoS Med, 2012;9(11), p. e1001336.
EPub date: 2012 Nov 6.
PMID: 23139643
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Chapter 14: Comparing the adequacy of carcinogenesis models in estimating U.S. population rates for lung cancer mortality.
Authors: Holford TR, Levy DT
Source: Risk Anal, 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1, p. S179-89.
PMID: 22882888
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Chapter 10: A macro-model of smoking and lung cancer: examining aggregate trends in lung cancer rates using the CPS-I and CPS-II and two-stage clonal expansion models.
Authors: Levy DT, Blackman K, Zaloshnja E
Source: Risk Anal, 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1, p. S125-41.
PMID: 22882883
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Exploring scenarios to dramatically reduce smoking prevalence: a simulation model of the three-part cessation process.
Authors: Levy DT, Mabry PL, Graham AL, Orleans CT, Abrams DB
Source: Am J Public Health, 2010 Jul;100(7), p. 1253-9.
EPub date: 2010 May 13.
PMID: 20466969
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Reaching Healthy People 2010 by 2013: A SimSmoke simulation.
Authors: Levy DT, Mabry PL, Graham AL, Orleans CT, Abrams DB
Source: Am J Prev Med, 2010 Mar;38(3 Suppl), p. S373-81.
PMID: 20176310
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Modeling the impact of smoking-cessation treatment policies on quit rates.
Authors: Levy DT, Graham AL, Mabry PL, Abrams DB, Orleans CT
Source: Am J Prev Med, 2010 Mar;38(3 Suppl), p. S364-72.
PMID: 20176309
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Recent trends in smoking and the role of public policies: results from the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model.
Authors: Levy DT, Nikolayev L, Mumford E
Source: Addiction, 2005 Oct;100(10), p. 1526-36.
PMID: 16185214
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