Grant Number:	5U01CA088204-09 Interpret this number
Primary Investigator:	Kuntz, Karen
Organization:	University Of Minnesota
Project Title:	A Population Based Policy Model for Colorectal Cancer
Fiscal Year:	2009

In the first CISNET project we developed a population-based Monte Carlo simulation model that evaluates national trends in the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC). The HSPH-CISNET Model incorporates age-, sex-, and race-specific trends in CRC risk factors, screening, and treatment, as well as the effects of risk factors and screening on the underlying natural history of colorectal disease and the effectiveness of treatment for patients with diagnosed CRC. The Model currently simulates the US population aged 25 years and older from 1970 to 2020. We have used the Model to examine the relative contribution of changes in risk factors, screening, and treatment to the overall population trends in CRC incidence and mortality. The purpose of this project is to use the HSPH-CISNET Model to evaluate the population impact of existing cancer control strategies, as well as the impact of strategies on the horizon. Of particular importance is to incorporate the associations between risk factors and screening trends, and to determine the potential impact of disparities in CRC risk and mortality at a population level. Other aims will focus on evaluating the population-level impact of specific risk factor trends, screening modalities, and treatment advancements. To validate our modeling assumptions, we will use our model structure to simulate the population of Norway, a country that does not have a CRC screening program, in an attempt to re-create their incidence and mortality statistics. We will continue to collaborate with other modeling groups, as well as with the new CRC Coordinating Center and the NCI to focus on questions that apply across all modeling groups. In addition, we propose a concrete plan for making our model more accessible to outside collaborators. This plan involves posting the model structure on a public website, sharing code with established outside investigators, and providing the necessary model support.




Cost-Savings to Medicare From Pre-Medicare Colorectal Cancer Screening.
Authors: Goede S.L. , Kuntz K.M. , van Ballegooijen M. , Knudsen A.B. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Tangka F.K. , Howard D.H. , Chin J. , Zauber A.G. , Seeff L.C. .
Source: Medical Care, 2015 Jul; 53(7), p. 630-8.
PMID: 26067885
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Development Of New Non-invasive Tests For Colorectal Cancer Screening: The Relevance Of Information On Adenoma Detection
Authors: Haug U. , Knudsen A.B. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Kuntz K.M. .
Source: International Journal Of Cancer, 2015-06-15 00:00:00.0; 136(12), p. 2864-74.
PMID: 25403937
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Rescreening of persons with a negative colonoscopy result: results from a microsimulation model.
Authors: Knudsen A.B. , Hur C. , Gazelle G.S. , Schrag D. , McFarland E.G. , Kuntz K.M. .
Source: Annals Of Internal Medicine, 2012-11-06 00:00:00.0; 157(9), p. 611-20.
PMID: 23128861
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How Should Individuals With A False-positive Fecal Occult Blood Test For Colorectal Cancer Be Managed? A Decision Analysis
Authors: Haug U. , Knudsen A.B. , Kuntz K.M. .
Source: International Journal Of Cancer, 2012-11-01 00:00:00.0; 131(9), p. 2094-102.
PMID: 22307927
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Contribution of screening and survival differences to racial disparities in colorectal cancer rates.
Authors: Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Kuntz K.M. , Knudsen A.B. , van Ballegooijen M. , Zauber A.G. , Jemal A. .
Source: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : A Publication Of The American Association For Cancer Research, Cosponsored By The American Society Of Preventive Oncology, 2012 May; 21(5), p. 728-36.
PMID: 22514249
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Comparative economic evaluation of data from the ACRIN National CT Colonography Trial with three cancer intervention and surveillance modeling network microsimulations.
Authors: Vanness D.J. , Knudsen A.B. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Rutter C.M. , Gareen I.F. , Herman B.A. , Kuntz K.M. , Zauber A.G. , van Ballegooijen M. , Feuer E.J. , et al. .
Source: Radiology, 2011 Nov; 261(2), p. 487-98.
PMID: 21813740
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A systematic comparison of microsimulation models of colorectal cancer: the role of assumptions about adenoma progression.
Authors: Kuntz K.M. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Rutter C.M. , Knudsen A.B. , van Ballegooijen M. , Savarino J.E. , Feuer E.J. , Zauber A.G. .
Source: Medical Decision Making : An International Journal Of The Society For Medical Decision Making, 2011 Jul-Aug; 31(4), p. 530-9.
PMID: 21673186
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Clarifying differences in natural history between models of screening: the case of colorectal cancer.
Authors: van Ballegooijen M. , Rutter C.M. , Knudsen A.B. , Zauber A.G. , Savarino J.E. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Boer R. , Feuer E.J. , Habbema J.D. , Kuntz K.M. .
Source: Medical Decision Making : An International Journal Of The Society For Medical Decision Making, 2011 Jul-Aug; 31(4), p. 540-9.
PMID: 21673187
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Radiation-related cancer risks from CT colonography screening: a risk-benefit analysis.
Authors: Berrington de González A. , Kim K.P. , Knudsen A.B. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Rutter C.M. , Smith-Bindman R. , Yee J. , Kuntz K.M. , van Ballegooijen M. , Zauber A.G. , et al. .
Source: Ajr. American Journal Of Roentgenology, 2011 Apr; 196(4), p. 816-23.
PMID: 21427330
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Cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening.
Authors: Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Knudsen A.B. , Brenner H. .
Source: Epidemiologic Reviews, 2011; 33, p. 88-100.
PMID: 21633092
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Stool DNA testing to screen for colorectal cancer in the Medicare population: a cost-effectiveness analysis.
Authors: Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Kuntz K.M. , Knudsen A.B. , Wilschut J.A. , Zauber A.G. , van Ballegooijen M. .
Source: Annals Of Internal Medicine, 2010-09-21 00:00:00.0; 153(6), p. 368-77.
PMID: 20855801
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Cost-effectiveness of computed tomographic colonography screening for colorectal cancer in the medicare population.
Authors: Knudsen A.B. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Rutter C.M. , Savarino J.E. , van Ballegooijen M. , Kuntz K.M. , Zauber A.G. .
Source: Journal Of The National Cancer Institute, 2010-08-18 00:00:00.0; 102(16), p. 1238-52.
EPub date: 2010-08-18 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 20664028
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Cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening - an overview.
Authors: Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Knudsen A.B. , Brenner H. .
Source: Best Practice & Research. Clinical Gastroenterology, 2010 Aug; 24(4), p. 439-49.
PMID: 20833348
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Effects of categorizing continuous variables in decision-analytic models.
Authors: Bentley T.G. , Weinstein M.C. , Kuntz K.M. .
Source: Medical Decision Making : An International Journal Of The Society For Medical Decision Making, 2009 Sep-Oct; 29(5), p. 549-56.
PMID: 19596867
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A cost-effectiveness analysis of folic acid fortification policy in the United States.
Authors: Bentley T.G. , Weinstein M.C. , Willett W.C. , Kuntz K.M. .
Source: Public Health Nutrition, 2009 Apr; 12(4), p. 455-67.
PMID: 18590584
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Evaluating test strategies for colorectal cancer screening: a decision analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.
Authors: Zauber A.G. , Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. , Knudsen A.B. , Wilschut J. , van Ballegooijen M. , Kuntz K.M. .
Source: Annals Of Internal Medicine, 2008-11-04 00:00:00.0; 149(9), p. 659-69.
EPub date: 2008-11-04 00:00:00.0.
PMID: 18838717
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Forecasting the obesity epidemic in the aging U.S. population.
Authors: Wang Y.C. , Colditz G.A. , Kuntz K.M. .
Source: Obesity (silver Spring, Md.), 2007 Nov; 15(11), p. 2855-65.
PMID: 18070778
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Population-level changes in folate intake by age, gender, and race/ethnicity after folic acid fortification.
Authors: Bentley T.G. , Willett W.C. , Weinstein M.C. , Kuntz K.M. .
Source: American Journal Of Public Health, 2006 Nov; 96(11), p. 2040-7.
PMID: 17018833
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