|Grant Number:||5U01CA157224-03 Interpret this number|
|Primary Investigator:||Etzioni, Ruth|
|Organization:||Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center|
|Project Title:||Modeling Prostate Cancer Control: Prevention, Screening, Treatment, Followup Care|
DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The broad, long-term goal of this proposal is to position disease modeling as a viable tool for clinical decision making and policy development. The specific goal is to utilize the three complementary surveillance models developed by the CISNET prostate group to address some of the most persistent and pressing policy questions in prostate cancer. In the proposed work we will extend the models to capture downstream outcomes following diagnosis, such as disease recurrence and secondary treatment. The extensions will be informed by some of the largest and richest population-based data sources available and will be validated extensively using these datasets and results from recently published US and European prostate cancer screening trials. The extended models will be used to project the expected costs and benefits of different screening and treatment policies in order to identify those likely to be of most value in practice. The screening policies will consider different ages to start and stop screening, inter-screen intervals, PSA-based criteria for biopsy referral, and combination policies that incorporate novel screening biomarkers. The treatment policies will include immediate versus delayed primary treatment and immediate versus deferred secondary treatment following biochemical failure. We will extensively investigate the ramifications for both disease-specific and other-cause mortality of policies that include hormonal therapy, the most common systemic treatment for suspected or confirmed metastatic disease. Recognizing that different policies may be called for in different subgroups, we will also investigate the need for targeted policies within subpopulations defined by factors known to affect prostate cancer risk and outcomes, namely age, comorbidity, race, and obesity. The proposed work comprehensively covers the continuum of cancer control issues amenable to modeling that face prostate cancer investigators today. We plan to conduct the research using a coordinated comparative modeling approach in which independent models are standardized and made comparable by the use of common inputs and the implementation of common "base case" scenarios. .
Projecting Benefits and Harms of Novel Cancer Screening Biomarkers: A Study of PCA3 and Prostate Cancer.
Authors: Birnbaum JK, Feng Z, Gulati R, Fan J, Lotan Y, Wei JT, Etzioni R
Source: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev, 2015 Jan 22;null, p. null.
EPub date: 2015 Jan 22.
Cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening: a simulation study based on ERSPC data.
Authors: Heijnsdijk EA, de Carvalho TM, Auvinen A, Zappa M, Nelen V, Kwiatkowski M, Villers A, Páez A, Moss SM, Tammela TL, Recker F, Denis L, Carlsson SV, Wever EM, Bangma CH, Schröder FH, Roobol MJ, Hugosson J, de Koning HJ
Source: J Natl Cancer Inst, 2015 Jan;107(1), p. 366.
EPub date: 2014 Dec 13.
A reality check for overdiagnosis estimates associated with breast cancer screening.
Authors: Etzioni R, Xia J, Hubbard R, Weiss NS, Gulati R
Source: J Natl Cancer Inst, 2014 Dec;106(12), p. null.
EPub date: 2014 Oct 31.
Overdetection of recurrence after radical prostatectomy: estimates based on patient and tumor characteristics.
Authors: Xia J, Trock BJ, Gulati R, Mallinger L, Cooperberg MR, Carroll PR, Carter HB, Etzioni R
Source: Clin Cancer Res, 2014 Oct 15;20(20), p. 5302-10.
Expected population impacts of discontinued prostate-specific antigen screening.
Authors: Gulati R, Tsodikov A, Etzioni R, Hunter-Merrill RA, Gore JL, Mariotto AB, Cooperberg MR
Source: Cancer, 2014 Nov 15;120(22), p. 3519-26.
EPub date: 2014 Jul 25.
Personalizing age of cancer screening cessation based on comorbid conditions: model estimates of harms and benefits.
Authors: Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Gulati R, Mariotto AB, Schechter CB, de Carvalho TM, Knudsen AB, van Ravesteyn NT, Heijnsdijk EA, Pabiniak C, van Ballegooijen M, Rutter CM, Kuntz KM, Feuer EJ, Etzioni R, de Koning HJ, Zauber AG, Mandelblatt JS
Source: Ann Intern Med, 2014 Jul 15;161(2), p. 104-12.
Authors: Etzioni R, Gulati R
Source: J Gen Intern Med, 2014 Sep;29(9), p. 1218-20.
Prostate cancer in young men: an important clinical entity.
Authors: Salinas CA, Tsodikov A, Ishak-Howard M, Cooney KA
Source: Nat Rev Urol, 2014 Jun;11(6), p. 317-23.
EPub date: 2014 May 13.
What do the screening trials really tell us and where do we go from here?
Authors: Etzioni RD, Thompson IM
Source: Urol Clin North Am, 2014 May;41(2), p. 223-8.
EPub date: 2014 Feb 19.
RE: A model too far.
Authors: Etzioni R, Gulati R
Source: J Natl Cancer Inst, 2014 Apr;106(4), p. dju058.
EPub date: 2014 Mar 21.
Empirical estimates of prostate cancer overdiagnosis by age and prostate-specific antigen.
Authors: Vickers AJ, Sjoberg DD, Ulmert D, Vertosick E, Roobol MJ, Thompson I, Heijnsdijk EA, De Koning H, Atoria-Swartz C, Scardino PT, Lilja H
Source: BMC Med, 2014 Feb 11;12, p. 26.
EPub date: 2014 Feb 11.
Is prostate cancer screening cost-effective? A microsimulation model of prostate-specific antigen-based screening for British Columbia, Canada.
Authors: Pataky R, Gulati R, Etzioni R, Black P, Chi KN, Coldman AJ, Pickles T, Tyldesley S, Peacock S
Source: Int J Cancer, 2014 Aug 15;135(4), p. 939-47.
EPub date: 2014 Feb 4.
Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of prostate cancer.
Authors: Loeb S, Bjurlin MA, Nicholson J, Tammela TL, Penson DF, Carter HB, Carroll P, Etzioni R
Source: Eur Urol, 2014 Jun;65(6), p. 1046-55.
EPub date: 2014 Jan 9.
Joint modeling approach for semicompeting risks data with missing nonterminal event status.
Authors: Hu C, Tsodikov A
Source: Lifetime Data Anal, 2014 Oct;20(4), p. 563-83.
EPub date: 2014 Jan 16.
Individualized estimates of overdiagnosis in screen-detected prostate cancer.
Authors: Gulati R, Inoue LY, Gore JL, Katcher J, Etzioni R
Source: J Natl Cancer Inst, 2014 Feb;106(2), p. djt367.
EPub date: 2014 Jan 7.
Semiparametric regression analysis for time-to-event marked endpoints in cancer studies.
Authors: Hu C, Tsodikov A
Source: Biostatistics, 2014 Jul;15(3), p. 513-25.
EPub date: 2013 Dec 29.
Modeling grade progression in an active surveillance study.
Authors: Inoue LY, Trock BJ, Partin AW, Carter HB, Etzioni R
Source: Stat Med, 2014 Mar 15;33(6), p. 930-9.
EPub date: 2013 Oct 9.
Correcting the Results of the Wrong Model: Treatment Effects under Early Detection of Cancer.
Authors: Lee SY, Tsodikov A
Source: J Stat Theory Pract, 2013 Apr 5;7(2), p. 421-441.
Evaluation of new technologies for cancer control based on population trends in disease incidence and mortality.
Authors: Etzioni R, Durand-Zaleski I, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I
Source: J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr, 2013;2013(46), p. 117-23.
Influence of study features and methods on overdiagnosis estimates in breast and prostate cancer screening.
Authors: Etzioni R, Gulati R, Mallinger L, Mandelblatt J
Source: Ann Intern Med, 2013 Jun 4;158(11), p. 831-8.
Treatment of local-regional prostate cancer detected by PSA screening: benefits and harms according to prognostic factors.
Authors: Wever EM, Heijnsdijk EA, Draisma G, Bangma CH, Roobol MJ, Schröder FH, de Koning HJ
Source: Br J Cancer, 2013 May 28;108(10), p. 1971-7.
EPub date: 2013 May 14.
Response: Reading between the lines of cancer screening trials: using modeling to understand the evidence.
Authors: Etzioni R, Gulati R
Source: Med Care, 2013 Apr;51(4), p. 304-6.
Effects of screening on radical prostatectomy efficacy: the prostate cancer intervention versus observation trial.
Authors: Xia J, Gulati R, Au M, Gore JL, Lin DW, Etzioni R
Source: J Natl Cancer Inst, 2013 Apr 17;105(8), p. 546-50.
EPub date: 2013 Feb 14.
Comparative effectiveness of alternative prostate-specific antigen--based prostate cancer screening strategies: model estimates of potential benefits and harms.
Authors: Gulati R, Gore JL, Etzioni R
Source: Ann Intern Med, 2013 Feb 5;158(3), p. 145-53.
Limitations of basing screening policies on screening trials: The US Preventive Services Task Force and Prostate Cancer Screening.
Authors: Etzioni R, Gulati R, Cooperberg MR, Penson DM, Weiss NS, Thompson IM
Source: Med Care, 2013 Apr;51(4), p. 295-300.
Prostate cancer mortality following active surveillance versus immediate radical prostatectomy.
Authors: Xia J, Trock BJ, Cooperberg MR, Gulati R, Zeliadt SB, Gore JL, Lin DW, Carroll PR, Carter HB, Etzioni R
Source: Clin Cancer Res, 2012 Oct 1;18(19), p. 5471-8.
EPub date: 2012 Sep 24.
Increasing use of radical prostatectomy for nonlethal prostate cancer in Sweden.
Authors: Etzioni R, Mucci L, Chen S, Johansson JE, Fall K, Adami HO
Source: Clin Cancer Res, 2012 Dec 15;18(24), p. 6742-7.
EPub date: 2012 Aug 27.
Deriving benefit of early detection from biomarker-based prognostic models.
Authors: Inoue LY, Gulati R, Yu C, Kattan MW, Etzioni R
Source: Biostatistics, 2013 Jan;14(1), p. 15-27.
EPub date: 2012 Jun 22.
The prostate cancer conundrum revisited: treatment changes and prostate cancer mortality declines.
Authors: Etzioni R, Gulati R, Tsodikov A, Wever EM, Penson DF, Heijnsdijk EA, Katcher J, Draisma G, Feuer EJ, de Koning HJ, Mariotto AB
Source: Cancer, 2012 Dec 1;118(23), p. 5955-63.
EPub date: 2012 May 17.
The impact of PLCO control arm contamination on perceived PSA screening efficacy.
Authors: Gulati R, Tsodikov A, Wever EM, Mariotto AB, Heijnsdijk EA, Katcher J, de Koning HJ, Etzioni R
Source: Cancer Causes Control, 2012 Jun;23(6), p. 827-35.
EPub date: 2012 Apr 10.
Isotonic estimation of survival under a misattribution of cause of death.
Authors: Ha J, Tsodikov A
Source: Lifetime Data Anal, 2012 Jan;18(1), p. 58-79.
EPub date: 2011 Nov 18.
Long-term projections of the harm-benefit trade-off in prostate cancer screening are more favorable than previous short-term estimates.
Authors: Gulati R, Mariotto AB, Chen S, Gore JL, Etzioni R
Source: J Clin Epidemiol, 2011 Dec;64(12), p. 1412-7.
What if I don't treat my PSA-detected prostate cancer? Answers from three natural history models.
Authors: Gulati R, Wever EM, Tsodikov A, Penson DF, Inoue LY, Katcher J, Lee SY, Heijnsdijk EA, Draisma G, de Koning HJ, Etzioni R
Source: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev, 2011 May;20(5), p. 740-50.